“Economists invented the recovery in K, characteristic of major changes”

In front of a UPS agency, in San Francisco, July 30, 2020.

What is a word worth these days? Larry Culp, CEO of General Electric, clearly does not feel committed by the promise of his predecessor, made on the occasion of the takeover of the energy division of the French group Alstom. In 2014, the American giant had promised 1,000 job creations in three years. Instead, the gas turbine business has lost almost 500 jobs as a result of relocations and a plan to cut nearly 800 jobs is in the works, according to the unions.

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There are a few extenuating circumstances to be recognized in Larry Culp. The profession on which his company and its competitor Alstom flourished has literally collapsed. Gas turbines are no longer sold and, in the field of hydraulic dams, orders have been halved since 2011. Even without the takeover by the American, the French would have found themselves in serious difficulty. The health crisis has obviously not helped by cutting the wings of GE’s most dynamic market, aircraft engines. And the financial situation of states, and in particular emerging countries, does not suggest any improvement in the short term. GE is on the wrong side of the road.

Worsening inequalities

It is quite the opposite of UPS. The famous American carrier sees the future with enthusiasm. He announced the hiring of nearly 100,000 seasonal workers in the United States to ensure the holiday season, from October to January. His friend Federal Express speaks of 75,000 vacant positions. On the lot, UPS estimates that a good third would be hired indefinitely thereafter. And salaries are rising for lack of finding enough candidates. The craze for electronic commerce is such that demand continues to explode. The volume of packages shipped to the United States increased by nearly 25% compared to last year. They are on the right side of the road, the one that leads to prosperity, investment and jobs.

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After having calculated the chances of a recovery in V, descent then rapid rebound, or in U, see in L or even in W, economists invented the recovery in K, characteristic of great changes. A sudden fall, followed by a strong surge in some areas, and a tumble in others. A powerful factor of aggravation of inequalities between countries, companies and individuals.

Larry Culp, he ensured his rear to register personally on the right path. GE’s board of directors voted to drastically relax the condition of obtaining its $ 230 million equity package, to take into account the drop in prices due to the crisis. You can never be too careful. The promises only engage those who do not know how to change them.

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