Tribune. Since January 31, 2020, the divorce between the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom has finally been declared. A transition period of up to a year, according to the wishes of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, is opening between the two parties to build a new relationship. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, wants a balanced deal between the two sides, as he said in the media on 3 February.
Certainly, the United Kingdom is very dependent on the European market: almost 50% of its imports come from the EU and its exports, significantly lower, build a very unbalanced trade balance.
Boris Johnson appeared on the same day to agree with this, pledging not to trade commercially to the EU, while saying it was out of the question for the UK to keep in line with the rules. European. The latter wants a free trade agreement like the one already negotiated between Canada and the EU, nothing more, nothing less.
The economic weight of the Union of 27, far greater than that of the United Kingdom, might suggest that the EU is approaching these negotiations from a position of strength. In fact, this observation deserves to be qualified. Certainly, the United Kingdom is very dependent on the European market: almost 50% of its imports come from the EU and its exports, significantly lower, build a very unbalanced trade balance.
But the United Kingdom has less to lose than the EU in the event of a tightening of the terms of trade between the two entities
But the UK has less to lose than the EU if trade conditions between the two entities are tightened. It can diversify its imports, nothing prevents it from buying elsewhere, while continuing to amplify the movement already started for more than ten years of growth in its exports to the rest of the world. In this negotiation, in the event of a non-agreement, the European Union is therefore much more exposed than the United Kingdom to a drastic contraction in bilateral flows that the risk of creating customs barriers could cause.
A difficult EU position vis-à-vis the United Kingdom
Another difficulty to be resolved for the EU: it is faced with a country which has just regained its full commercial independence, which therefore has full freedom to choose, sector by sector, sector by sector, geography by geography, where lies its interest. The British can therefore harden their positions on fishing while being more accommodating in sectors where their dependence is strong vis-à-vis the EU, particularly in productions where the value chains are shared between the two entities ( automotive, aeronautics for example).
