LETTER FROM JERUSALEM
For the Palestinians, this new year will be electoral. Or will not be. In early November, Palestinian factions announced that they had finally agreed to hold parliamentary and presidential elections in early 2020. The electoral process would begin in February, some even said. Optimism was a must in the political ranks while a certain skepticism prevailed among the Palestinians, who have not voted in this type of double ballot since 2005 and 2006.
However, since November, nothing has changed or almost. Would we fall back into the 2014 or 2017 scenarios when the promised vote was unsuccessful? This time, however, the parties seem ready to compromise to achieve it, despite many obstacles. "In general, our events become non-eventsadmitted Afif Safieh, diplomat and former ambassador, at a conference on the subject in Jerusalem. This time, let's make these elections an event! "
Concessions and distrust
The first obstacle is the political configuration marked by a deep division between the Fatah of the Palestinian Authority (PA) based in Ramallah in the West Bank and Hamas which controls the Gaza Strip, since its victory in the legislative elections in 2006. Despite several attempts reconciliation, the last of which dates back to autumn 2017, the two parties still cannot come to an agreement, each blaming the other for its bad will.
However, they seem to have reached a compromise to fix the framework for these new elections. Hamas has moreover been more conciliatory than the PA expected, ready to make concessions so that the election can take place. The Islamist movement believes it has a chance of winning in the West Bank, given the growing distrust of the Palestinians towards the PA.
The prospect of a democratic process to elect its leaders also leaves the Palestinians perplexed. "Especially the Palestinian youth, the one who never voted", explains Tareq Baconi, analyst at the think tank International Crisis Group. Among this generation, born after the 1993 Oslo Accords, many do not or no longer believe in "Peace process" or at the "Armed resistance" against the Israeli enemy. It has no confidence in its representatives, engaged in security cooperation with Israel in the West Bank, which they consider a betrayal while freedom of expression is muzzled.
In Gaza, the social protest movement "We want to live" in March 2019 was violently suppressed by Hamas. "Many Palestinians today speak of civil rights and equality and do not mention the national project (from a Palestinian state), says Baconi. They want more freedom, including freedom of movement, and intend to dismantle the apartheid system embodied in the Israeli occupation. "
Less partisan youth
According to the analyst, young people would no longer claim to be partisan for Fatah or Hamas like their parents. Therefore, a change of generation must take place so that the Palestinian leadership may regain some legitimacy in their eyes. 84-year-old President Abbas nevertheless intends to stand for re-election in the next presidential election …
However, neither the stalemate in intra-Palestinian reconciliation nor the skepticism of the Palestinians seems to worry their leaders. For them, the only point that could compromise these elections comes down to one word: Jerusalem. Will its 450,000 Palestinian residents be able to vote there? On December 10, the PA formally asked Israel to allow elections in the Holy City. The Hebrew state has yet to respond. On December 29, President Abbas denounced Israeli ill will. "We will not hold elections without Jerusalem being part of them", he warned. The Palestinian raises refuse to issue a decree that would set the dates for the two polls until Israel has given its approval.
The Hebrew State prohibits in East Jerusalem, the eastern part which it occupies since 1967, any political activity resulting from the PA which it considers as an attack on its sovereignty over the Holy City. Already in 2006, the Hebrew state wanted to prevent Palestinian legislative elections there, before yielding to American pressure. Once again, the international community could play a role: some states could host polling stations in their consulates in Jerusalem, thus providing neutral ground for Palestinian voters.
By defining Jerusalem as the condition for holding the elections, the Palestinian leaders nevertheless risk discrediting themselves, raising doubts about their real will to organize a poll this year. "Israel's refusal could in fact be used as an excuse to justify the failure of a new electoral process", recognizes Tareq Baconi.
