the posture of the commander in chief, an electoral argument for Trump

Donald Trump in Washington, December 2019.
Donald Trump in Washington, in December 2019. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI / AFP

Donald Trump’s campaign team wasted no time. A few days after the assassination of Iranian General Ghassem Soleimani, she started broadcasting campaign ads on Facebook that praised the commander in chief " the United States. If the strike of January 2 was primarily motivated by foreign policy issues, the entourage of the president took the opportunity to praise the billionaire's spirit of decision in an area where negative opinions have constantly prevailed since his arrival in the White House in the Quinnipiac University barometer (56% disapproval in December).

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While the American administration has put forward, since the assassination, the responsibility of General Ghassem Soleimani in the death or injuries of hundreds of American soldiers, Donald Trump has so far not benefited from a patriotic reflex in American public opinion. Only a relative majority, almost identical to that which supports the president against all odds since 2017, approved the strike of January 2 (43% against 38% of opposite opinions according to YouGov, 47% against 40% according to Morning Consult). In both polls, an absolute majority (57% for YouGov, 69% for Morning Consult) believed that the assassination made an escalation with Iran more likely, unlike official American discourse.

Variable geometry explanations

On the other hand, Donald Trump was able to benefit from the unanimous support of the republican elected representatives, with the rare exception, in the Senate, of Rand Paul (Kentucky), libertarian and isolationist claimed. This support is all the more noteworthy that the President of the United States has wiped numerous snubs from his troops about his diplomatic choices in the Middle East. This was the case for the support given to the war in Yemen, to the blank check granted to the Saudi monarchy, or even to the project of withdrawal of the American special forces deployed in the northeast of Syria.

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Likewise, elected Republican officials have accepted the justifications presented to guarantee the legitimacy of the elimination of a foreign dignitary. Administration officials, however, provided explanations of varying geometry. President Robert National’s security adviser Robert O’Brien returned on January 7 to a so-called threat"Imminent" against American interests advanced after the strike in early January, when Donald Trump spoke of "Reprisal" for past acts. For his part, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo highlighted "The continued efforts by this terrorist to build a network that would potentially lead to the deaths of many more Americans."

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