Three meetings Monday, October 26 in Pennsylvania, three more Tuesday in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska, before a new tour in the states he hopes to win in the west of the country, Nevada and Arizona: the electoral marathon of Donald Trump continues unabated. As of October 27 in the evening, the outgoing president has already made forty-five trips since the end of the inauguration conventions, on August 27, against only twenty-seven for his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden. Four years ago, Donald Trump traveled the United States with the same energy until the day before the vote.
For the moment, this debauchery of efforts is hardly paying off. Donald Trump remains behind in terms of voting intentions for the November 3 elections, whether at the national level – purely indicative -, as in a good part of the key States, even if the gap may be narrower there. .
The last presidential debate had no significant impact on the face of the presidential race. Joe Biden is even on the offensive this week. He traveled to Georgia on Tuesday and will visit Iowa on Friday, two states clearly won by the Republican in 2016 with respectively 5 points and 9 points ahead of his then-Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton.
One week before the ballot and for lack of convincing factual elements, Donald Trump did not benefit as he expected from the controversy that he helped fuel on influence peddling of which he would have been guilty, according to him. the former vice president through his son, Hunter Biden.
Towards an undoubtedly record participation
The proportion of undecided people is now very low (3% according to the poll published on October 27 by Emerson College) and more than 70 million Americans have already voted in advance, by mail or by going to a poll already open. This figure is now more than half of the total votes cast in 2016, which augurs well for a probably record turnout for this presidential election.
For months, Donald Trump has presented the polls that are unfavorable to him as biased. He is banking on a repeat of the 2016 election, whose extremely close results in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania had not been anticipated by pollsters.
The outgoing president still has a path, however narrow, to obtain a second term. She goes through a “Over-immobilization”, according to Henry Olsen, one of the conservative columnists of the Washington Post, of its most loyal base, the unqualified white voters. Within this social group, “Many of them did not vote in 2016 or were not even registered on the electoral roll”, he believes. Donald Trump’s campaign highlights a recent catching up on the electoral lists of registered Republicans compared to Democrats in key states such as Florida and Pennsylvania.
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