Tribune. The refrain seems to impose itself in the French debate: Trump would only be the continuation of Obama in foreign policy, both being the product of an America tired of "endless wars", disappointed by ungrateful allies, aspiring to refocus on itself to face the only adversary to its measure: China. In this vision, Trump would represent the new American normality, an evolution that France would have understood before the others, and to which we should adapt without further delay.
The analysis is interesting in that it reveals French priorities, but it remains simplistic. Worse still, it risks becoming deterministic if it makes Trumpism the only horizon of an American policy, however uncertain. This vision is far from being shared by our European partners, which is detrimental to our training capacity to build a sovereign Europe.
Obama-Trump continuity?
However, there is no shortage of arguments. The Trump presidency is indeed the embodiment of an America that questions the objectives of its international policy and its role in the world. Doubts and divisions over military intervention, the role of the allies, and the possibility of "disengagement" cut across the two major parties. Donald Trump must be recognized as having provoked the largest American debate on foreign policy in several decades. Other elements of continuity exist between the Obama and Trump presidencies: criticism of the Washington establishment in matters of foreign policy, insistence on a new sharing of the transatlantic burden, reorientation of priorities towards China, and will to put an end to military engagements long-term in the Middle East.
"By conceiving of long-term Trumpism, France has been better prepared for a re-election of the American president than many of its neighbors"
A vision which can however become simplifying and, ultimately, lead to bad interpretations and anticipations. First, because Obama-Trump continuity is more complex than it seems, and that it cannot predict future choices of American administrations. In France, the trauma of summer 2013, when the "red line" fixed on Syria was not respected by Barack Obama, is seen as the key illustration of a desire for "withdrawal" from the United United, which continues today under Donald Trump. This episode does not have the same value in the analysis made by our European neighbors. Because if the foreign policies of Obama and Trump echo the same concerns among the American population, the former and the new president do not share the same analysis of the world, and do not offer the same answer.
