Analysis. A few days ago, residents of Souweïda, Druze stronghold in southern Syria, conspired in the middle of the street the memory of Hafez Al-Assad, the father of current President Bashar Al-Assad, who died twenty years ago . "May your soul be cursed", sang the slingers, their middle finger, towards a portrait of the founder of the Baathist regime. This sacrilegious gathering takes part in demonstrations hostile to Syrian power, which have been taking place for ten days in the Druze city.
The slogan of the Arab revolutions of 2011, "The people want the regime to fall", sounds there, mixed with denunciations of corruption and the ongoing economic debacle which is marked by a collapse of the national currency. This discontent has spread in the region of Deraa, a former rebel zone, contiguous to Souweïda, and in that of Idlib, in the north-west, controlled by Islamist factions.
If Assad won the war, except in Idlib, he tackled the post-war period and outlawed it
But these protests show a climate of latent instability. Under the ashes of repression, the embers of the revolution of March 15, 2011 are still glowing. The discontent is heightened by the free fall of the Syrian pound, which rose to 2,300 per dollar, against 1,000 at the start of the year. If Assad won the war, except in Idlib where he had to suspend his efforts to win back under Russian pressure, he tackled the post-war era and proscribed it.
Bashar Al-Assad surely hoped to celebrate his twenty years at the head of Syria in a better context. Not that this renewed mobilization constitutes a threat to his power. As far as one can judge from the videos posted on the Internet, participation in these events remains modest: a few hundred people at most. "For the regime to tremble on its bases, it would have to happen in Damascus or in the other big cities under its control, like Hama, Homs and Aleppo", observes a foreign diplomat.
Caesar law: coup de grace to reconstruction
Second, by prohibiting delivery to the Syrian government "Services in the field of construction and engineering", the César law has the means to give the coup de grace to the attempts to rebuild the regime. This clause should complete dissuading the Syrian fortunes, who have taken refuge in the Gulf, to return to the country and reinvest their money there.
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