Democrats in a good position to retain the House of Representatives

In front of the House of Representatives at the Washington DC Capitol in April.

As the presidential election on November 3 approaches, The world keeps the campaign log. A daily update, with campaign facts, political advertisements, polls, maps and figures that allow you to follow and experience the most important electoral competition in the world.

Donald Trump showed his confidence during the debate on October 22 by asserting that the Republican Party is able to regain a majority in the House of Representatives on the evening of November 3. An ambitious goal in view of an unfavorable electoral map of the Grand Old Party.

The day before, the Cook Political Report, one of the reference sites for American politics, had once again modified its forecasts for the general elections of November 3 in a direction favorable to the Democrats. They concerned eleven constituencies including ten in a sense favorable to the Democratic Party. These changes reflected the sentiment generally shared by election experts who expect the Democratic Party to retain its majority in the lower house on November 3. According to the Cook Political Report, Democrats could even increase it from 5 to 15 seats.

With 232 seats against 198 in the Republican Party, the Democrats have a significant margin. It is reinforced by the fact that only 9 of their elected officials do not stand for election in 2020 against 26 Republicans. The outgoing status is considered an asset in an assembly which is fully subject to re-election every two years. The Republicans must win about twenty constituencies, given the seats currently vacant, in order to cause an alternation. While the majority is set at 218 seats, the Cook Political Report currently grants 228 to Democrats, including 191 ” solid democrats “(Against 153 Republicans), 18” probably democrats “(Against 13 Republicans) and 13” rather democrats (Against 15 Republicans). Twenty-six seats are considered undecided, including 9 Democrats and 17 Republicans.

Four Republican seats where the incumbent does not stand for re-election are already allocated to the Democratic Party, in Texas, North Carolina and Georgia. These changes, if they are confirmed, would be part of the movement initiated during the mid-term elections which saw the peri-urban areas turn to the Democrats, often through the candidacy of women. The Republican Party had lost 41 constituencies on this occasion.

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