London believed it had control over the Covid-19 epidemic after establishing new containment in early November. But that was without counting the development of a new version of SARS-CoV-2, which quickly became dominant in Britain. Simultaneously, in South Africa and Brazil, new variants have also been identified.
So far, nothing abnormal. The appearance of one or more variants is a frequent process in the evolution of a virus. But the arrival of variants of SARS-CoV-2, more contagious and more lethal, risks shaking up the already complicated management of the pandemic. In France, the English mutation of the virus was, in mid-February, already “Responsible for 20% to 25% of infections” on the national territory, and very present in Moselle.
Faced with this situation, mathematicians and epidemiologists have developed equations capable of anticipating, to a certain extent, the consequences that these new versions of SARS-CoV-2 could have on mortality.
Sources:
Monitoring of the evolution of variants in the world
UK National Statistics Office
Adam Kucharski projections
Projections of the ETE group
