Friday, January 31, at 11 p.m. London time – midnight in Paris – will take place the "Brexit". One thousand three hundred and seventeen days after the British vote in June 2016 calling for an exit from the European Union (EU), the endless soap opera will end. Or will know, at least, the end of his first act.
Because, in fact, this major geopolitical break will have no consequences in the months to come. If he does leave the EU, the United Kingdom enters a transitional period during which he will remain subject to Community rules and obligations, until the end of the year, the time to negotiate the terms of his future relationship with Vingt-Sept.
This stage promises to be obviously complex, since it will have to settle commercial disputes as much as cooperation in matters of security and intelligence, standards for civil aviation, access to international waters for fishing, participation in the program for Erasmus student exchange, electricity and gas supply, or the regulation of medicines, etc.
For at least another eleven months – British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has ruled out an extension of the period, but Brussels has warned against this particularly tight timetable – the United Kingdom, the second largest contributor to the EU budget behind the Germany will therefore continue to pay its due to the European institution. And to also receive European funds. For their part, the British and European citizens will keep complete freedom of movement, pending the details of reciprocal rights being negotiated. That's all ? Yes and no. Beyond the symbol, some changes will still be observable from 1st February.
For the European Union
With the departure of the United Kingdom, the EU will for the first time lose a member state, which is one of the largest and richest (15% of its economic power). With the departure of 66 million people, the EU will see its population grow to around 446 million. Its territory will decrease by 5.5%.
In Brussels, the withdrawal of the Union Jack from the European Parliament will symbolize a very real change: the United Kingdom, a member country since 1973, becomes a "third country". None of the 73 British MEPs elected in May will sit in the hemicycle – 46 of these seats will be reserved for future member states and 27 will be redistributed.
As citizens of a foreign country, the British will no longer be able to claim civil servant positions in Brussels, even though many of those concerned had anticipated and acquired dual nationality in order to be able to stay.
From 1st February, London will officially no longer have the right to present a candidate for the post of European Commissioner. There had already been no British representative in the European executive since 1st November 2019, Prime Minister Boris Johnson refused to propose one in the new Commission. The head of the British government will no longer be invited to European summits, nor will members of his cabinet attend ministerial meetings.
The British will also see a new fifty pence coin appear in their wallets. To mark the event, an obol was indeed specially struck, calling for "Peace, prosperity and friendship with all nations".
According to the United Nations (UN), around 1.2 million British citizens live in an EU country, mainly in Spain, Ireland, France, Germany and Italy. According to the British Statistical Office, 2.9 million nationals from the 27 EU countries live in the United Kingdom, or around 4.6% of the population.
Under the Withdrawal Agreement, expatriates who have moved to either side of the Channel before the end of the transition period will retain their rights to reside and work in their host country. However, European citizens residing in the United Kingdom must register to benefit from these rights. For Britons living in the EU, the procedures differ from country to country.
Nothing, really. EU law will continue to apply in the UK during the transition period. This means that tourists can always go across the Channel with a simple identity card or passport, catch their Eurostar or ferry without additional security checks, drive cars on British territory, or even buy English products without pay import tax.
Likewise, mobile phone users will not see their bills soar – roaming charges received by operators for consumption abroad will remain the same.
Also nothing immediate. Even if there are still many issues to be resolved by December 31, 2020, businesses should not see a difference when waking up on Saturday 1st February.
In the longer term, beyond December 31, 2020, it may be quite different, depending on the success, or failure, of the negotiations on the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU. Negotiations that promise to be already stormy.
Our series on the challenges of Brexit
