This report was apparently to remain secret but its dissemination, Wednesday January 27, by the site of the daily Het Laatste Nieuws, enabled it to be the subject of a public debate in Belgium. Developed by seventeen renowned scientists and sent to the federal government and the regions, it describes the risk posed by the English variant and believes that a third wave of contamination can no longer be ruled out.
Until now, the Belgian health authorities have stuck to the conclusions of foreign studies, particularly British, citing a contagiousness rate of the variant 30% higher than the initial strain of Covid-19. According to experts, this rate is, in fact, 65%, and the spread of the variant is so rapid now that it could be dominant by the end of February. It would result in a reproduction rate of 1.65 – it was, Thursday, 0.98 in Belgium.
One hundred people likely to contaminate 165: this means, according to specialists, that the partial containment measures and the curfew currently in force would not be enough to stop a new epidemic. Hence the concern of the authorities, who have so far wanted to maintain the bulk of economic life – with however significant recourse to teleworking – and the opening of schools.
Currently, the report notes, between 15% and 25% of positive tests recorded in Belgium indicate the presence of the variant, but the curve, if it is confirmed, should lead to a proportion of 90% at the end of February. A sharp increase in contaminations occurred after the Christmas holidays, even though Belgian citizens had been asked not to leave the country and, if they went abroad, to respect a quarantine and to be tested in their return.
What measures to take?
While the English variant was initially detected in adults, it is now found in young and old. This indicates that it is spreading in schools (several of them have been closed, in the three regions of the country) and retirement homes.
Evoking “A worrying situation”, scientists fear that the contaminations and hospitalizations curves will once again reach the peaks of spring and autumn 2020. They do not, however, comment on the measures that would be likely to stem this new risk. “I think the third wave has started, it has the potential to be strong but we have a lot of weapons to break the chains of transmission”, explained Emmanuel André, one of the authors of the document.
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