Discussions on the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom are expected to continue on Monday after a long weekend focused on the thorny issue of fisheries. This issue continues to block any prospect of an agreement just eleven days before the final break between London and Brussels, raising fears of post-Brexit shocks.
“The talks remain difficult and important differences remain. We continue to explore all avenues to reach an agreement ”, commented a British source on Sunday evening. A European source confirmed “To expect” that the discussions resume on Monday, a sign that in this long standoff, no one intends to throw in the towel first, so as not to bear the heavy responsibility of a failure
Unsurprisingly, the deadline for the European Parliament, which was waiting for a text before “Sunday midnight”, will be outdated, like many others before in the Brexit saga, as the political and economic stake is so important.
The MEPs’ objective was to have a minimum of time to examine and ratify a hypothetical treaty, so that it enters into force on 1er January. But an agreement reached in extremis in the coming days could still enter into force provisionally, with a posteriori ratification by the European Parliament.
According to several European sources, such a scenario is technically possible only if a compromise is found before Christmas, otherwise a “No deal”, at least for a few days, appears inevitable.
Brexit relegated to the background by the coronavirus
Sunday was marked by another meeting between British negotiator David Frost and his European counterpart Michel Barnier. “We respect the sovereignty of the United Kingdom. And we expect the same ” of the British, then underlined the French in a tweet, evoking a “Crucial moment of negotiations”.
These interminable talks are continuing in Brussels as the coronavirus pandemic monopolizes the attention of the British government, which has announced the re-containment of London and the south-east of England in the face of a surge in contamination attributed to a new strain.
Several European countries, including Belgium, where the talks are taking place, and France, have announced the suspension of flights and trains from the United Kingdom. The EU is planning a crisis meeting on the subject on Monday, almost making Brexit a second priority.
A trade deal must be found before the UK – which officially left the EU on January 31 – leaves the European single market and customs union after December 31.
Otherwise, trade between the EU and London will be carried out according to the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), synonymous with customs duties and quotas, with serious consequences for economies already shaken by the pandemic. .
Fishing, litigation and competition
The Europeans condition British access without customs duty or quota to their immense market to the settlement of the fishing issue, that is to say the conditions of access of their fishermen to United Kingdom waters. The subject is of major political and social importance for certain Member States, France and the Netherlands in the lead, despite its low economic weight. On the other side of the Channel, the water control symbolizes a British sovereignty regained thanks to Brexit.
On the other two difficult subjects – the way to settle disputes and measures to protect against any unfair competition – positions have however come closer this last week, even if the discussion remains open.
Europeans are calling for guarantees in London to protect their huge market from the risk of dumping in terms of the environment, labor law or taxation. They also want to make sure that the United Kingdom does not subsidize its economy at all costs, a point on which the two parties are struggling to seal a compromise.
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