Brexit and the bad indicators in Germany and Italy weaken the slight signs of recovery in France.
Miracle or mirage? While the global economy is darkening, the tricolor economy, it takes colors. According to a note published by INSEE on September 10, nearly 161,600 new jobs were created between January and June in France. At the same time, the household confidence curve has recovered, investment has remained buoyant, business start-ups are taking off. Even the building, which was showing signs of stalling, went back in the summer.
What will help the government to budget? Not really. The executive does not benefit this year from the momentum it could have had at the beginning of the term. Despite the good orientation of the indicators, the gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the wealth created in the country, is expected to fluctuate slightly between 1.2% and 1.4% in 2019. A modest performance, if we compare it with the 2 , 4% of 2017.
But it will be worse elsewhere. Because if the French economy does not make sparks, the situation in the Rhine gives, it, serious signs of disaster. Driven by poor auto manufacturing performance and sluggish global trade, German GDP declined 0.1% in the second quarter and is expected to grow only 0.5% in 2019, according to forecasters.
"We do not live on an island"
The situation is even worse in Italy: the growth looks zero for this year, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund targeting just 0.1% growth in activity. And the halo of uncertainties is still thickening with the approach of Brexit, which threatens to heavily affect states like the Netherlands or Belgium.
Less exposed because less export, France appears, for the moment, rather preserved from the surrounding swirls. "But we do not live on an island and we realize that the demand addressed to France, which depends on the consumption and investment of our partners, is collapsing.notes Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Contexts. There is a rapid stall. "
It is to slow down the movement and reinvigorate the European activity that Bruno Le Maire, has again prompted, Friday, September 13, countries that have budget margins to invest. A request essentially addressed to Berlin but, for the moment, excluded by the German government. No question of embarking on a stimulus policy. "The third budget of this government will be solid and without new debts"assured the Minister of Finance Olaf Scholz on 10 September.