Chronic. Frankly, who is still interested in Brexit other than a few diplomats, lobbyists and journalists? A pandemic is underway, the deaths number in the hundreds of thousands, a historic economic crisis leaves millions of unemployed… And during that time, what are London and Brussels doing? They childishly stage disagreements over their future trade relations.
Friday, October 16, after a European summit that did not change anything, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson pretended to end the negotiations. Except that Michel Barnier and David Frost, the two negotiators, spoke by phone and the reality is that the talks are continuing. In normal times, this kind of political game would probably be fair game. At present, we are bordering on indecency.
This is all the more true as the positions of the two camps are in fact very close. A small effort by the Europeans on fishing, a gesture by the British on the issue of state aid, and we should be able to find some common ground.
Avoid the worst
Brexit is of course a major subject, even historic. But the stakes are now practically over. Since 1er February, the United Kingdom politically left the European Union. It remains to be determined the future trade relations between the two camps, which will come into force on 1er January 2021. For a long time now, there has been no question of a “soft Brexit” or a “hard Brexit”. There is only the second option left, Boris Johnson having decided that he wanted to have his own trade policy, which forces the reinstatement of border controls on goods.
From an economic point of view it is unfortunate, especially for the UK, but it is so. We can no longer go back. Whatever happens, in early 2021, companies trading on both sides of the border will have to complete import and export declarations, obtain sanitary or phytosanitary certificates where applicable, with trucks passing through Kent must have an access permit … This paperwork represents a large part of the economic cost to come.
It now remains to avoid the worst: an exit of the British without any agreement. Such a scenario would add to the administrative cost of customs duties, on average from 4% to 6%, but which can exceed 100% for certain food products. The cost would also be diplomatic: if London and Brussels leave without reaching any agreement, picking up the pieces will be painful. However, we must continue to talk to each other. The United Kingdom will remain the second largest economy in Europe and will always have one of the two European armies that count, along with France.
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