After Brexit, the pitfalls of a quick overhaul of UK-EU relations

Prime Minister Boris Johnson in London on December 19, 2019.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson in London on December 19, 2019. UK PARLIAMENT / JESSICA TAYLOR / via REUTERS

The Europeans were relieved on the evening of December 12, when they were certain that Boris Johnson now had a large majority in Westminster after the legislative elections. More than three years after the Brexit referendum, this is an important step that could be taken.

However, the rest looks just as complicated. On January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom will no longer be officially a member of the European Union (EU). But he will still be forced to apply community rules while London and Brussels negotiate the ins and outs of their future relationship. The divorce agreement provides that this transitional period will end on December 31, 2020, unless Boris Johnson requests an extension. What the British Prime Minister excludes.

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The Withdrawal Agreement Bill, the text which aims to establish the divorce treaty in British law, was to be examined on Friday 20 December, for final adoption before mid-January. He rules out the possibility of a transition period beyond the end of 2020. The goal for Mr. Johnson is clear: he won the general elections of December 12 on the promise of a "Get Brexit done" – "Let's achieve Brexit" -, ensuring that, as soon as possible, the country could move on to "something else" or, at the very least, could benefit from the separation from the EU. There is no question of letting a transitional situation last, which would very quickly be denounced by the Brexiters or the Labor opposition as a "false Brexit".

Therefore, Europeans have eleven months to negotiate with London the terms of their future relationship. "It's about undoing forty years of joint construction. In eleven months ", said Thierry Breton, Commissioner for the internal market and digital, during a meeting with the press Thursday, December 19.

"We will do our best"

Negotiations will focus on a trade agreement as well as on fisheries or a broad security partnership. In the political declaration which accompanies the divorce agreement, the two partners refer to a free trade agreement without customs duties or quotas. Which, for Europe, cannot be done without the United Kingdom committing to respecting fair conditions of competition, whether in the social, fiscal or even environmental field. "I don't think you can have access to the single market with different climate, environmental, economic or social legislation", hammered Emmanuel Macron, Friday, December 13, at the end of the European summit.

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