Chronic. Brexit, which entered into force on 1er January, started as expected: relatively poorly. It is not the catastrophe. UK supermarket shelves are not empty and there is no truck congestion crippling Kent, contrary to the most pessimistic forecasts. But in January, UK exports to the European Union (EU) fell 41%, and European exports to the UK fell 29%. A phenomenon of exceptional magnitude.
Another symbol: in January, Amsterdam became the first European stock exchange, dethroning the City for the first time. The much-announced crumbling of trade relations between London and Brussels has begun. The tectonic plates began to recede.
Admittedly, the fall of January was exceptional and will partly be absorbed. We are in the midst of a pandemic and earlier this year the UK reinstated strict containment. In addition, in anticipation of Brexit, companies had stockpiled in previous months, automatically accentuating the decline in trade in January. Finally, with an agreement signed on Christmas Eve for entry into force on 1er January, many companies were not ready. Today, they have a better handle on the paperwork to be completed.
“For now, everything is going as expected by economists, says Jonathan Portes, economist at King’s College London. The impact of non-tariff trade barriers is significant, without this being a cataclysm. “ In the long term, forecasts point to a decline in UK exports to the EU of around 20% compared to a no-Brexit scenario.
Purification of seafood
In addition to the inevitable trade frictions, there is a permanent regulatory guerrilla war between London and Brussels, which complicates the visibility of companies. Scottish seafood producers have learned this the hard way.
In the first few weeks after Brexit came into effect, many cargoes had to be thrown away. To export, it was necessary to make health declarations, but there were not enough veterinarians available … Many companies also made errors in the documents necessary to send their goods. The time to settle everything, the shellfish and crustaceans were no longer safe to eat.
Today, veterinary checks work much better and companies control the paperwork to be completed. But during January, Brussels warned: it will not change its rules concerning the purification of seafood. From now on, bivalve molluscs, that is to say oysters, mussels and clams, must be purified before be exported to the EU if they come from waters classified in category B, less pure than category A.
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