London and Brussels managed to agree on Tuesday, December 8, on the way in which a crucial part of the Brexit agreement concluded a year ago will be applied, the one which concerns the Northern Irish question. An essential step for the current discussions to have a chance to succeed.
On Wednesday evening, Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, are to meet in Brussels to try to find a solution to the questions which remain problematic. Cecile Ducourtieux, correspondent in London for The world, answered your questions in a chat from Monde.fr.
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Pierre – A discussion is due to take place this evening between the British Prime Minister and the Head of Representatives of the European Union. Does the fate of Brexit play out at this meeting?
Tonight’s dinner at the Berlaymont, the headquarters of the European Commission in Brussels, is crucial. We are only twenty-two days from the end of the transition period, on the evening of December 31, and Boris Johnson has ruled out extending the negotiations beyond. The British Prime Minister and Ursula von der Leyen have spoken on the phone twice over the past few days to no avail. Meet ” face to face “ Perhaps it will make it possible to get out of the impasse politically, negotiators Michel Barnier and David Frost having exhausted the discussions on the technical level. If the meeting allows the parties to relaunch the discussions, to put their teams of negotiators back to work on the track of a compromise, then we are likely to hope. If they find again that their positions are irreconcilable, given the little time left to consider a possible ratification of an agreement, in the European Parliament as in Westminster, the “No deal” seems likely.
The hour is the hour – Taking into account the deadlines for ratifying a possible agreement, are we not heading, whatever happens, towards a period without agreement from the 1er January 2021?
Not necessarily. To get into force on time, the deal is expected to be ratified by the European Parliament and the Westminster Parliament by December 31. For obvious political reasons: it is still a question of defining long-term trade relations between leading economic partners.
The European Parliament is kept regularly informed of the state of the discussions, as is the House of Commons in London. They can be mobilized quickly. The British government is confident that an agreement can be ratified by elected officials in less than a week. Important detail: The British Parliament has yet to release its official dates for its ” pause “ of Christmas…
Camcam – If I understood correctly, “The advance” yesterday, in reality, is not: it is rather a threat from the UK of basic non-compliance with international law …
Yesterday, Tuesday 8 December, the United Kingdom and the European Union announced an agreement in principle on the application of the Northern Irish protocol. Difficult to understand something when we have not followed these discussions since 2017 …
But, to summarize, Brussels and London have already agreed on a divorce agreement, at the end of 2019. This agreement included provisions to avoid the return of a border on the island of Ireland (in order to protect the agreements of 1998). In particular the establishment of a customs border in the Irish Sea, between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The aim was to agree before the end of 2020 on the practical modalities of this new border (which customs declarations, which hygiene certificates, for which products?).
Discussions were very tough, with the UK arguing for as few controls as possible. They finally got loose yesterday. Much to the relief of Northern Irish economic agents.
At the same time, London announced that it was waiving hotly contested clauses in a bill, which were supposed to ” protect “ Northern Ireland, but who violated the divorce treaty with the European Union and had the sole purpose of putting pressure on the Brussels negotiators. Their maneuver was cynical, it was not necessarily effective, but abandoning the clauses is still a sign of goodwill on the part of London.
SebMrs13008 – I understand that the European Union is a “Negotiating machine”, prowled in last-minute negotiations, but isn’t there a great risk of precipitating in a few days the formalization of a possible agreement, then its ratification by the European and British Parliaments?
It is true that this negotiation seems a little crazy: usually, a trade agreement, especially of such magnitude, takes years to be negotiated. The British could have chosen to extend the transition period – therefore the discussions – until 2022. They did not want to know, despite the pandemic.
Probably because Boris Johnson, who has a four-year term, does not want to talk about Brexit until 2024 (date of the next general election), he who has kept promising a “Oven ready Brexit” (a Brexit “Ready to cook”). The Europeans had to agree to a deadline of December 31 of this year. On the other hand, the trade treaty under discussion is still very special: it is not about removing customs (or regulatory) barriers, as in classic treaties between two parties (EU / Canada or EU / Japan) , but to erect it where there was none …
And the subjects that get stuck have been widely known since last March: fishing, the conditions of competition and the governance of the agreement. The negotiators had plenty of time to discuss the details. It is not the lack of time that is the problem now, but the “Red lines” each other’s policies. Sovereignty, on the British side; protection of the internal market, on the European side.
Hhs – If an agreement is not reached in the coming days, is it possible that negotiations between the EU and the UK will continue after the establishment of a “No deal” ?
Good question, difficult to answer with certainty. As usual with Brexit, we are faced with unprecedented situations. In the absence of “Deal” to 1er January, the UK will be considered a ” third country “ of the EU, just like Turkey or the United States. And, in the absence of a trade treaty, World Trade Organization tariffs will have to be imposed for goods passing through the Channel.
Taxes will be especially important for agricultural products or cars. The situation will be very penalizing from an economic point of view, especially for the United Kingdom, but also for the EU. How long will they last before returning to the discussion table? I would say a few weeks …
Britpop – Due to the health context, in particular, the popularity of Boris Johnson, as his political base within his party, seems largely eroded. Can this push him to make concessions to the EU, or on the contrary to harden his tone? Can this complicate the ratification of an agreement?
Boris Johnson’s popularity has obviously suffered from his muddled handling of the first pandemic wave, and his Conservative Party is a “Broad church”, as we say here, it includes many different currents, and full of potential rebels. But, so far, these challenges have not gone so far as to question the Prime Minister’s leadership.
On the health front, Boris Johnson’s management has been much more cautious since this fall, and the fact that the vaccination campaign has already started – the United Kingdom is the first in the world to apply it – represents for him an undeniable success. Negotiating a compromise with Brussels will certainly cost him political capital, but for now, no one imagines he will lose his vote in the Commons on a deal.
Jlp – Is Michel Barnier in the circle of discussions today? We no longer have much confidence in him, on the continent side. And he practically announced the “No deal” yesterday. Isn’t that the best guess?
Michel Barnier should be present at dinner tonight between Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson, just like his alter ego David Frost, as well as a handful of other collaborators. Was he a pessimist yesterday – or a realist? Just like the British side, which in recent hours has repeatedly played down the chances of an agreement.
But I still believe it … A “No deal” to 1er Next January, even if it only lasts a few weeks, would be really painful for everyone. Economically – and nobody needs it in these times of pandemic – but also politically: not reaching an agreement would be a failure for Mr Johnson, as for the Commission, but also for Angela Merkel, who is at the end mandate, and while Germany is in the rotating EU presidency.
