Why didn't the much-feared slaughter in the Middle East take place?

At a mall in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 2.
At a mall in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 2. AHMED YOSRI / REUTERS

In Lebanon, road accidents have killed more people since March 15 than the coronavirus (28 against 26). In Palestine, the number of deaths from Covid-19 is more than fifty times lower than in Israel (4 versus 239). In Saudi Arabia, a country of 33 million people, the epidemic has claimed as many lives as in Norway, a country of 5 million people (219 and 217). We could go on for a long time: in the Arab Middle East, as in Africa, the dreaded massacre did not take place.

As of May 8, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) count, the cumulative deaths caused by the virus in these states amounted to 1,125. The country most affected in absolute terms is l 'Egypt, with 503 official disappearances. In relative terms, in relation to the population, the United Arab Emirates leads the way, with 17 deaths per million inhabitants. In France, the same rate is 398. However, at the end of February, when it was understood that the disease would not stop at the borders of China, all the signals seemed to be red.

Read also Faced with the coronavirus, Egypt oscillates between denial and repression

The proximity of the Gulf monarchies to Iran, the main source of infection in the area, the glaring shortcomings of the Syrian, Lebanese and Iraqi health systems and the sprawling demography of Egypt seemed to constitute a particularly favorable breeding ground for the spread of the epidemic. The fact that the region is dotted with sites mixing promiscuity and unhealthy conditions at a very high level, be it camps for Palestinian refugees, displaced Syrians or migrant workers, not to mention the prisons, often filled with opponents of to the brim, added to the concern.

Rapid isolation measurements

The reasons why this time bomb failed to detonate are still unknown. In the absence of definitive explanations, observers are reduced to groping, to advance more or less substantiated hypotheses. The factor on which almost everyone agrees is the relative speed with which the authorities in power, aware of the vulnerability of their population, have taken measures of isolation.

The most emblematic case concerns Saudi Arabia. As early as February 26, when the kingdom had not identified any contamination, the authorities suspended Omra, the small pilgrimage, by closing access to the holy mosques in Mecca and Medina. Less well known is the example of Lebanon. In the Cedar country, educational establishments closed on March 2, two weeks before France, at a time when the country had only 13 Covid-19 patients. The measure was extended in the days that followed to bars, nightclubs and restaurants, so that when the general containment order fell on March 15, the country had been idling for more than a year. week.

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