Editorial. King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, who reigned from 1982 to 1995, used to say: “After Allah, we can count on the United States. This maxim has never been so correct as under the mandate of Donald Trump. During his four years in the White House, the former US president offered a blank check to the Crown, in particular to its strongman, Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman, nicknamed “MBS”.
Donald Trump has turned a blind eye to the military intervention in Yemen, the kidnapping of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and the arrests of feminist activists. He encouraged the blockade of Qatar, another disastrous move by the Saudi dolphin. He finally passed the sponge on the assassination of journalist and dissident Jamal Khashoggi, in 2018, in the premises of the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, for which the CIA attributed the responsibility, in a report, to the son of King Salman.
By deciding to publish this document on Friday February 26, that his predecessor was quick to classify, Joe Biden signals to “MBS” that his autocratic impulses will now have a price. This measure, after the freezing of several contracts for arms sales to Arabia and the end of American support for Saudi operations in Yemen, initiates a welcome recalibration of the Washington-Riyadh relationship.
The new American president does not have the ambition to dislodge the crown prince from the line of succession. The hyper-centralization of power implemented in recent years by “MBS”, contrary to the traditionally collegial functioning of the monarchy, has made it more or less untouchable.
The publication of the “Khashoggi” report is not synonymous with a break between the two allies. The new administration is committed to continuing to provide the kingdom with the defensive weapons it needs to counter missiles and drones launched against its territory by Yemen’s Houthi militias and other pro-Iranian operatives in the Middle East.
Delicate diplomatic part
What this episode means is less spectacular. It testifies first of all to the decline of the importance of Arabia for the United States. The pact made at the end of the Second World War, during the famous meeting on the cruiser deck Quincy, between Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz, was based on an exchange of services: American protection for Riyadh, a stable oil market for Washington. With the boom in shale gas in the United States, this founding “deal” has lost its value.
Joe Biden expects less brutal governance from Saudi Arabia. The Democratic president knows that he will not turn “MBS” into a paragon of virtue. It just needs its main Arab partner to be more presentable and play the multilateralism game.
As he prepares to negotiate a return to agreement on its nuclear program with Iran, Joe Biden is also trying to guard against unpleasant surprises. The blow inflicted on “MBS” could dissuade him, if he intends to do so, from hampering his efforts in what will undoubtedly be a very delicate diplomatic part.
The Crown Prince would be well advised to hear the message. In parallel with his crises of authoritarianism, he launched an ambitious program of economic and societal modernization of his country. This initiative requires a level of foreign investment and popular support from which Arabia is today very far away. If he wants to give his plan a chance to succeed, “MBS” must transform his kingdom of fear into a rule of law.
