“The risk for Iran is to become a state that is too dependent on China”

Grandstand. On June 18, 2021, the conservative Ebrahim Raïsi was elected president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. With 48.8% participation according to official figures, these presidential elections are marked by the lowest participation rate in a presidential election in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Systematic corruption at all levels, the violent repression of protests, a major economic and social crisis and the inability of reformers to reform are the main causes of this deep crisis of confidence that exists today between the Iranian people and their leaders. policies.

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From a diplomatic and geopolitical point of view, the new Iranian administration is focusing on a strategy that its thinkers have named “looking east”. For his first trip abroad, the new Iranian president is going to Tajikistan in September 2021 to participate in the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

For immunity from US sanctions

Iran became, only a few weeks after the taking office of Ebrahim Raisi, officially a member of this organization led by Beijing and Moscow. With this body based more on a rejection of the West than on a real confidence in the East, the Islamic Republic is moving significantly away from one of its most cherished principles, engraved at the entrance of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tehran: “Neither the East nor the West, the Islamic Republic of Iran”.

By betting on a decline of Western powers during the century in which we live, Iranian conservatives wish to establish a strategic partnership with China on political, strategic and economic issues. The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs announced on January 14 during an official visit to Beijing the launch of the implementation of the twenty-five-year strategic and commercial cooperation agreement with China.

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An agreement criticized by a large part of the elites and the Iranian population because of its opaque nature. A strategic partnership with China would therefore help Tehran to “neutralize” Washington’s sanctions, as Ayatollah Khamenei wishes. Iranian conservatives believe that an economic partnership with China and closer ties with neighboring countries in the region, not to mention possible military cooperation with Russia, will lead to immunity from US sanctions.

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