Saudi Arabia wants to extricate itself from the conflict in Yemen. But, from North to South, the myriad of conflicts and front lines which wind their way through the political and military map of the country, still more fragmented after five years of war, makes it almost impossible. Several weeks after Riyadh declared a unilateral ceasefire, the Saudi effort to find an honorable exit from the Yemeni quagmire is taking over.
In the North, the Houthi rebels who control Sanaa, the capital, ignore them and continue their offensives. Tensions in the south around Aden have escalated after the Transition Council (STC) declaration of self-determination in late April. This entity maintains the project of an independent state or at least an autonomous territory within the borders occupied before the country’s unification in 1990 by the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen. If the southerners are formally part of the front led by Saudi Arabia against the Houthi rebels, they oppose the Yemeni president, Abdrabbo Mansour Hadi, a refugee in Riyadh.
On the ground, in Aden and the neighboring provinces, statements by the STC, which announced, in addition to self-determination, the state of emergency, did not change the situation. The balance of power was already favorable to separatists on the security level and the STC did not take control of key institutions, despite the troop movements near the central bank in Aden.
However, these new tensions within the anti-Houthi camp are an additional burden for Riyadh, whose diplomatic efforts on the Yemeni scene seem doomed to failure. In November, after clashes between supporters of the Hadi government and the STC over the summer, Saudi Arabia reached a forceps deal between the two sides, the Riyadh Accord. Imprecise and overly ambitious, the pact supposed to organize the sharing of power with the southerners has remained essentially a dead letter.
Frustration of the marginalized
“The southerners' declaration is above all symbolic. It aims to remind the Saudis that they cannot manage the South without taking into account the interests of the STC and forcing Hadi to concessions ", says Thanos Petouris, a specialist in South Yemen and a researcher at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London. To this end, southerners can highlight undeniable assets, including the unpopularity of the official government in and around Aden and the popular support they enjoy there. Their declaration of self-determination came after torrential floods in which residents of the southern city were once again left to fend for themselves in their fallen capital.
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