The ceasefire agreement concluded by the presidents, Russian Vladimir Putin and Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan, entered into force on Friday March 6 in the province of Idlib, the last pocket of the rebellion in the northwest of the Syria.
Agreed the day before in the Kremlin between the two heads of state, the agreement, a text in three points, appears as minimalist as precarious. The length of the discussions – six hours – testifies to the difficulty in obtaining a result.
The agreement calls for the creation of a 12-kilometer-wide safety corridor (6 kilometers on either side) along the strategic M4 road that links Latakia to northern Syria. This strip of land, supposed to be rid of the rebels who largely control it, will be furrowed by joint Russian-Turkish patrols from March 15. In fact, Damascus' positions are consolidated and the rebels are losing ground.
Facilitating the return of refugees
It is vaguely stated that the return of refugees should be facilitated as much as possible as well as access to humanitarian aid. The two sides also reaffirm their attachment to the territorial integrity of Syria.
The text is only a draft since the parameters of the functioning of the security corridor will be defined within a week by the defense ministers of the two countries.
"These advances, even minimal, are hard to swallow for the Turkish side, says Maxime Soutchkov, Middle East expert at the Russian Council for International Affairs. Most significantly, the fate of the M5 motorway is not mentioned at all. This may mean that Turkey accepts its loss. "
The M5 road, which links Damascus to Aleppo, the country's commercial capital, is essential to the regime to consolidate its grip on the country. As a sign that the Kremlin intends to firmly control this route, the Russian military police were deployed earlier this week in the strategic city of Saraqeb, seated at the junction of the two M4 and M5 motorways, to counter any Turkish attempt at the resume.
The deal is a setback for President Erdogan, who sees his main demands ignored. Nothing is said of the fate of the Turkish observation posts surrounded by the regime of Bashar Al-Assad, nothing is planned for the refugees displaced by the fighting, finally Damascus retains possession of the newly captured territories while Ankara demanded the retreat of the forces of the regime.
