In the Middle East, Lebanon is experiencing the worst economic crisis in its history, aggravated by the global pandemic of Covid-19. But also by a delicate political context, exacerbated by the tensions between Hezbollah, an ally of Iran who dominates Lebanese political life, and the United States. Our correspondent in Beirut, Benjamin Barthe, answered your questions on Thursday July 16 in a chat from World.
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@Elias: Where are the negotiations started with the IMF around financial aid? More generally, what is the position of the United States, which seems to be taking advantage of the crisis to apply maximum pressure on Hezbollah (and therefore Iran and its allies) by depriving it of dollars?
They skate. The Lebanese delegation, which is undermined by the divisions, does not even manage to agree on a diagnosis, that is to say the quantification of losses, the extent of bankruptcy. The banking sector, represented in the negotiations by the governor of the central bank, continues to say that Lebanon is not bankrupt. The government would like to move towards an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but it is bypassed on all sides.
An example: the IMF is asking for a law on capital controls. The government is in favor, the banks too, but the President of Parliament, Nabih Berri, leader of the AMAL party which theoretically supports the government, refuses, as does the central bank. So it does not advance. The United States is pressuring, that’s correct, but in the event that Lebanon reaches an agreement with the IMF, it is unlikely that Washington would oppose it.
Chb20: To what extent is this a deliberate policy of the United States in its confrontation with Iran (by weakening Hezbollah)?
The Lebanese disaster is mainly “home made”. It is the result of decades of mismanagement, corruption led by an oligarchic and predatory elite. The crisis, which had been brewing for a long time, erupted in autumn 2019 when the Ponzi scheme set up by the central bank to finance the State’s debt needs finally collapsed.
That said, Lebanon obviously does not live in a vacuum and the international situation affects it. American pressures on Syria and on Hezbollah have an impact on the Cedar country. Just like the slowdown in growth in the Gulf, which has forced many Lebanese expatriates, sources of income for their homeland, to pack their bags. But the main cause of the crisis is endogenous.
Dido: What about Hezbollah during this crisis? Do we not risk seeing it play an important social role, for example by ensuring the distribution of basic products, and at the same time seeing its influence increase in the country? And what do neighboring countries think?
All parties are trying to take advantage of the crisis to patch up the community system that was shattered by the popular uprising in the fall of 2019, and to tighten their control over their politico-confessional base. This involves, among other things, charitable activities, food distributions, etc. Hezbollah is no exception.
MichelT: What are the solutions envisaged in the long term, because at present there is almost no solution in the short and medium term?
No one can say, this is perhaps the most hopeless aspect of the crisis. In the short term, the reinjection of currencies, by the signing of an agreement with the IMF, will give a little oxygen to the country. At the Economic Conference for Development through Reforms and with Businesses (Cedre) in 2018, donors in Lebanon promised aid of $ 11 billion. This windfall is suspended from the IMF’s green light, which is slow to come.
But this money will not solve the fundamental problems of the country, which faces an almost existential deadlock. It must reinvent itself from top to bottom, develop a productive economy, establish a more redistributive tax system, break with – or clear out – a completely flawed sectarian political system, etc. The challenges are dizzying.
Scoroconcolo: Does the popular uprising in autumn 2019 have the slightest chance of starting again in the coming months, or have the various crises swept away the Lebanese’s capacity to demonstrate?
You are never safe from a cunning of history. But at this point it seems that the revolution of October 17, 2019 has failed. The demonstrators were not sufficiently prepared, the Covid-19 epidemic short-circuited them, the difficulties of everyday life strangled them, and then there was in their ranks a very great diversity of opinions, which made all very complicated coordination. This is where the opposition parties and movements are currently working. A rapprochement is underway between different trends, with the idea of presenting a united list in the legislative elections of 2022.
Alix: I do not understand the interest of the current political class to block the reforms requested by the international community.
The political class is made up of community leaders who have never, or very rarely, had the good of the country at heart. Many of them were militia leaders who had swapped the trellis for the two-piece suit at the end of the civil war in 1990. They excel at making members of their community believe that they are defending them, when they are only defending their private interests.
Un Lebanese Expatriate: I understand the desire to describe situations in a realistic manner, but why use such an alarmist tone, in particular in the titles of the articles which concern Lebanon? It is a small country, which has seen green and unripe ones, and if we have to remember one thing, it is that its inhabitants have always made it out. A large newspaper can easily tarnish the image of a small country in a few unfortunate headlines. It is not helping him. What is your objective with this editorial line?
Our coverage is not alarmist. This is the situation. The famous “resilience” to which you refer has too often served as a screen in the pursuit of policies that are bound to go to the wall. The country has today shattered on this wall. He won’t get away with the usual expedients.
Franco LIETA: Lebanon has absorbed and tolerated within its borders or many refugee camps, notably from Syria during the war years. To what extent has this situation weakened the Lebanese economy already in crisis? Has Lebanon benefited from international aid for the reception of these refugees, and what has become of these refugees?
You are right. The country is considered to host roughly 1.5 million refugees (the vast majority Syrians, but also Palestinians) for a total population of around 6 million people. It’s a huge ratio. This population has weighed on the country’s infrastructure, already in poor condition. The international community, mainly through the United Nations, has helped Lebanon to cope with this influx.
Tens, possibly hundreds of millions of dollars have been paid since 2011, when the Syrian crisis began. That said, with a few exceptions, Western countries have always refused to open their borders to refugees settled in Lebanon. Welcoming them to their territory, relieving Lebanon of part of this burden, would have been the best way to help it. This has not been done. The international aid has the unspoken objective of settling the refugees in Lebanon.
UnFrancaisauLiban: What about the epidemic? If the containment measures taken quickly made it possible to initially control the epidemic, we seem to be far from it now: increase in the number of infected, more containment, more barrier gestures, more control…
Indeed, the epidemic is starting to rise again in Lebanon, as in many countries of the planet. For the moment, reconfiguration is not on the agenda. Given the level of economic despair – illustrated for example by the fact that fathers of families resort to armed robbery to bring milk powder to their babies – such a measure would risk being very badly taken by the population.
Cat: Are French schools (numerous in Lebanon) at risk of disappearing?
They are in big trouble. The Catholic Schools Secretariat warned in a letter to the president, Michel Aoun, that 80% of them could close by 2021 if the economic situation continues to deteriorate. This is why France recently announced an emergency aid plan for this sector. Millions of euros will notably be allocated to families of children enrolled in around forty Christian schools to enable them to maintain their offspring in these establishments at the start of the September school year.
