In a few hours, the Syrian front of Idlib, where Russia and Turkey are engaged in the north-west of Syria, became incandescent again. Rebel groups backed by Ankara launched a rain of rockets at Syrian army positions on Tuesday, October 27, in retaliation for the targeting of a training camp the day before by the Russian air force. These strikes on Monday killed dozens of insurgent ranks and marked the most violent escalation since March, when a truce went into effect in Idlib, an area beyond Damascus control. .
This rise in tensions comes at a time when theaters of friction are multiplying between Moscow and Ankara: in Libya, but also in Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey is involved in it on a ground considered as a precinct by Russia, and it is accused of sending Syrian fighters there in its pay in support of Azerbaijan. The two countries are forced partners in the Syrian conflict: Moscow is a pillar of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, while Ankara supports various groups in northern Syria, against the regime but also against the Kurdish forces. These antagonistic “godfathers” had come to an agreement in Sochi, in September 2018, on the Idlib region, by an agreement which provided for the reopening of two major roads, the creation of a safety belt around Idlib and the bringing jihadist groups in line in the area.
Bloody warning
The identity of the group targeted on Monday, not far from the border with Turkey, is by no means trivial: it is Faylaq Al-Cham, a formation with privileged links with Ankara. She is the largest of the pro-Turkish factions, and is responsible for the security of her mentor’s troops in the Idlib area. Monday’s strike could serve as a bloody warning from Moscow to Ankara: to scale back its regional ambitions in the face of Russia’s own intentions. But it is also part of a climate of deterioration in the Idlib area. This region is dominated by insurgent and jihadist groups, but the authorities have always reiterated their determination to reconquer this territory, of which pro-regime forces have resumed, since 2019, several portions, during deadly offensives.
One of the signs of volatility in the Idlib region is the withdrawal of Turkish forces, after Ankara ventured into the Russian backyard of the Caucasus, from several vantage points, surrounded by forces. pro-regime for several months. “Four of the eight points held by Ankara have already been evacuatedsays Nawar Oliver, a researcher at Omran, a Turkey-based strategic studies center close to the Syrian opposition. This withdrawal is likely to continue: the Turks do not want their soldiers to get caught up in a military operation. On the other hand, the Russians blame the Turks for having continued to send heavy equipment [armes et véhicules militaires] ” towards the observation points. The training of pro-Turkish Syrian factions has also reportedly been stepped up in recent months.
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