In mid-November, during a keynote speech devoted to his achievements in the economic and social field in front of the Majlis al-Shoura, the ersatz of the Saudi Parliament, Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman awarded himself a large satisfaction. . Restructuring of public accounts, increase in non-oil GDP, doubling of the volume of assets managed by the sovereign wealth fund, multiplication of entertainment opportunities such as concerts, doubling of the rate of participation of women in the labor market, etc.
According to the son of King Salman, nearly five years after the launch of Vision 2030, this vast reform plan supposed to build a productive society, free from its archaisms and its addiction to black gold, would be solidly on track . The kingdom would be among the G20 countries having best managed the economic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic, which is the cause of 5,745 deaths, but in decline since July. Implicit message to investors before the G20: the Saudi economy is a safe investment.
The optimism of “MBS” is not totally out of place. According to the International Monetary Fund, Saudi GDP should end the year down 5.4%, a forecast less catastrophic than those reserved for large countries in the euro area. Austerity measures, such as the reduction in subsidies, coupled with the successful issuance of Treasury bills, had stemmed, before the health crisis, the haemorrhaging of public finances due to the collapse of crude prices in 2014. The Public Investment Fund (PIF), a sleepy government entity, has become a juggernaut of 320 billion dollars (270 billion euros), on the lookout for good deals.
The digitization of government services has also taken a leap forward, as illustrated by the Absher application, used by the population for the slightest administrative formality. “The Saudi bureaucracy has become more efficient, notes Ayham Kamel, in charge of the Middle East at the consultancy firm Eurasia. It is a foundation on which to build. ” And as indicated by the Crown Prince, the percentage of working women has increased from 17% in 2016 to 31% in 2020, which is the goal of Vision 2030, reached ten years in advance.
But Saudi statistics highlight another reality, less flattering for “MBS”. The unemployment rate has not fallen over the past five years. It hovered around 12%, with a peak of 15% in the second quarter of 2020, in the midst of a period of containment, while the dolphin’s plan targets 7% in 2030. This situation results from the persistent weakness of the private sector, the black spot in the economy. Its share in the GDP, which was 40% in 2016, rose to 40.7% in 2019, far from the 65% expected in 2030.
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