This is the trophy that Benyamin Netanyahu dreams of winning. If the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain offered a fine political victory to the Israeli prime minister by normalizing their relations with his country – the first on August 13, the second on September 11 – these decisions weigh little compared to what could represent a recognition of the Hebrew state by Saudi Arabia, heavyweight of the Gulf and leader of the Sunni world.
During the signing ceremony of the Bahraini-Israeli and Emirati-Israeli agreements scheduled for Tuesday, September 15 at the White House, this hypothesis should float in the minds of more than one guest. The fact that the tiny archipelago of Bahrain, a vassal state of Arabia, has chosen to follow in the footsteps of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) suggests that Riyadh approves of the current diplomatic dynamic and may one day join it. With a leader as impetuous as Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman, the son of King Salman, the man who gave women the right to drive, shouldn’t we expect anything?
“Bahrain would not have taken such a step without the green light from the Saudis, estimates Husseïn Ibish, analyst at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. This suggests that the Saudi Crown is potentially willing to do the same in the future, depending on how it goes for the Emirates and Bahrain. “” All the Gulf monarchies look to Israel for their defense against Iran, adds Marc Schneier, an American rabbi who has entered the palaces of the region. The question is not whether they will recognize Israel, but when they will. “
Balancing act
According to the Saudi leaders, this day is not for tomorrow. On August 19, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Ben Farhan reiterated the kingdom’s intangible position to date: no normalization with Israel without the creation of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. The historic give-and-take, conceived in 2002 by King Abdullah, Salman’s predecessor, and adopted that same year by the Arab League, under the name of “Arab peace initiative”. “Once this is done, anything is possible”, added the prince.
In the process, breaking with the silence observed by Riyadh since the announcement of the agreement concluded by Abu Dhabi, the Saudi foreign minister welcomed the initiative of his neighbor: “All the efforts which lead to push back the threat of annexation can be considered as positive”, he judged in reference to Mr. Netanyahu’s plan to swallow up the Jordan Valley, a plan suspended in exchange for the recognition of Abu Dhabi.
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