Chronic. The Iranian nuclear pendulum has restarted. Tick, tock. The danger zone is getting closer. The Islamic Republic has set the timetable. From this beginning of February, Iran is producing uranium enriched to 20% – a level which makes it possible to move quickly towards military nuclear power. Between the “Guide” Ali Khamenei and Joe Biden, the new American president, engages a bazaar negotiation: who will take the first step towards appeasement?
For once, Tehran is sticking to a simple line. In 2018, Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the international agreement concluded in Vienna on July 14, 2015 with Iran. Approved by the UN, this document strictly framed the nuclear program of the Islamic Republic, which obtained in return the lifting of traumatic sanctions for its economy. The Iranians have honored the terms of the agreement. By reneging on Washington’s signature, they say, Trump has released their country from its commitments.
Tehran’s new “nuclear line” is dangerous. At Natanz, the large uranium processing site in central Iran, new cascades of centrifuges have been set in motion, as we say in poetic nuclear jargon. With a first result: the Iranian stock of enriched uranium – at 3.7%, according to the Vienna standard – is already twelve times higher in volume than the limit set by the 2015 agreement. The race for military nuclear power is relaunched. How to stop it?
Both sides have given their starting positions. “If Iran returns to strict enforcement” the provisions of the Vienna Agreement, “The United States will return”, Biden explained, “As a first step for other negotiations” and they will lift them “Trump sanctions”. Khamenei replied in substance: Iran is ready to observe the Vienna agreement again on condition that Washington again becomes a party and cancels the sanctions taken by Biden’s predecessor.
A broad conception of the agreement
Through the voice of its foreign minister, Javad Zarif, Iran has requested European mediation. Mission: synchronize the starting positions of the Americans and Iran. In Washington, where we are not enthusiastic about the Zarif proposal, the Iranian dossier was entrusted to the talented Robert Malley, a former member of the Obama team. The resumption of negotiations assumes that Biden and Khamenei are talking about the same subject. Nothing is less sure.
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