Is Israel Sleepwalking Towards Fourth Parliamentary Elections in Just Over a Year? This prospect becomes more concrete, whereas the mandate of Benny Gantz to form a government expired, Wednesday April 15 at midnight, without the general having found an agreement with the Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
The question is no longer who could run the country: Mr. Netanyahu remains the only viable candidate, since General Gantz shattered his own majority of 61 deputies (out of 120) and his movement, Bleu Blanc, March 26, hoping to join a unity government.
Tired of this improbable team which associated him both with the Arab parties and with the ultranationalist Avigdor Liberman, Mr. Gantz has since negotiated a rotation agreement at the head of the government, which would see him succeed Mr. Netanyahu in ten eight months, in October 2021. An eternity in Israeli political times, during which the general had few guarantees that his partner would not back down on his promise.
Lack of confidence undermines negotiations that continued late Wednesday evening, and in which Mr. Gantz's room for maneuver continues to erode. It now has only one faction of around fifteen Knesset members. If he fails to join the government, this man elected on the promise to end more than ten years of power of Mr. Netanyahu is likely to be swept away in a new election. " This is our moment of truth: it will either be a national emergency government or a redundant fourth election, " he said Wednesday night, while Netanyahu pledged to continue their talks.
Health crisis
If President Réuven Rivlin does not give the two men new deadlines, their talks will continue in the Knesset, which will have three weeks to find a majority. Otherwise, a new poll, which will have to be organized in three months, will be inevitable. It would be exhausting for institutions as well as for the Israelis' confidence in the state, in times of health crisis.
However, Netayahu, who remains at the head of a transitional government since the end of 2019, can afford to drag the matter out. He can hope to attract the two parliamentarians he misses to obtain a narrow majority. In any event, the polls show that his right-wing coalition will be victorious if new elections are held today. He would then have the wherewithal to have parliament pass an immunity law guaranteeing him to stay in power during his trial for corruption, fraud and breach of trust, due to open in May.
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