This is the kind of dilemma that the Arab states would do well, but which they have had to get used to in recent years because of Israeli-American unilateralism. After Washington's recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of the Hebrew State in 2017, then the recognition, still by the White House, of the annexation of the Golan by Israel in 2019 and, finally, the announcement of Donald's peace plan Trump in January, the possibility that the Israeli government will annex from 1er July part of the West Bank places the Arab capitals once again in overhang.
Their leaders find themselves forced to juggle between, on the one hand, their traditional pro-Palestinian positioning and a public opinion overwhelmingly hostile to Israel, and, on the other, their military and financial dependence on the United States, and for some of them, such as the Gulf monarchs, interests which are increasingly intersecting with the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister.
The kingdom of Jordan, bordering the West Bank, has taken the firmest position. King Abdullah, whose subjects are half of Palestinian origin, carries out telephone calls and videoconferences with his Arab peers, the American administration and European officials, brandishing the specter of a "Major conflict" in the event of annexation. "I don't want to threaten (…), but we are considering all options ", he explained to the german magazine Der Spiegel, in response to a question about the possibility of Amman reacting to an Israeli fait accompli by the revocation of the peace agreement signed with his Jewish neighbor in 1994.
The Hashemite kingdom knows that any annexation measure, whether it is limited to settlement blocks or covers the whole of the Jordan Valley, would definitively bury the two-state solution, the foundation of the peace process in Middle East. Amman fears that in such a situation, Israel, which does not want a non-Jewish majority in the territories under its control, will push the Palestinians towards Jordanian soil.
"Lobbying campaign"
To counter this scenario, possibly fatal for his dynasty, King Abdullah must play tight. A severance of relations with Israel would pose the risk of a suspension of Washington’s financial aid to the monarchy. A windfall of $ 1 billion a year, vital for this country devoid of natural resources.
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