Tribune. A time obscured by the multiple rifts in the Middle East, the Israeli-Arab conflict is returning to the forefront of geopolitical news. The “battle for Jerusalem” in which Hamas is engaged, at the risk of a high-intensity war, and the Judeo-Arab tensions in the heart of several Israeli cities, including Jerusalem, could have regional repercussions. Would the recent Abrahamic accords, signed in 2020, therefore be doomed? Many think so.
Such a prognosis requires putting the stakes in perspective. On September 15, 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel signed the Abrahamic Accords in Washington. Clearly, it was about establishing official relations between the two emirates of the Arab-Persian Gulf and the Hebrew state, a diplomatic triangle enshrined in a trilateral agreement. Not without lucidity, the United Arab Emirates initiate this process.
In their wake, Sudan and Morocco have since normalized their relations with Israel. Despite the inclinations of the crown prince, Saudi Arabia has not yet joined this initiative. “Protector of the holy places of Islam”, King Salman is cautious. He also intends to keep this card to negotiate with the Biden administration.
Reinvigorated but secondary Israeli-Palestinian conflict
That said, the Israeli-Saudi convergences are effective, with discreet cooperation in intelligence and security. Several years ago a geostrategic axis between Israel and the Gulf States took shape. It aims to contain Iranian-Shiite ambitions in the Middle East, from the Arab-Persian Gulf to the Levantine basin, with implications in the Red Sea and as far as the western Mediterranean.
At first glance, the level of the stakes and the gains made by the Arab states engaged in this dynamic make it unlikely that the Abrahamic accords will be called into question, provided that Israel succeeds in restoring civil peace in Jerusalem and in the Judeo cities. -arabs of its territory. A conflict limited to operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip will not arouse the hostility of its Arab partners, opposed to this emanation of the Muslim Brotherhood.
In fact, Iran’s support for Hamas underscores the fact that the Abraham’s accords are part of a geopolitical context that goes beyond the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, temporarily reinvigorated but secondary to regional problems. Despite Joe Biden’s desire to renew the imperfect Iranian nuclear deal, signed in July 2015, the Iranian threat will remain. Likewise, the ongoing Iranian-Saudi talks are aimed only at avoiding the worst.
You have 56.28% of this article to read. The rest is for subscribers only.
