Will China emerge weakened or strengthened from the trade war against it in the United States? The question divides, including in Beijing. In the short term, the answer is obvious. Quarter after quarter, the economy has been slowing and exports have been falling for the past four months.
However, with official growth remaining at 6%, urban unemployment at around 5% and foreign trade with a large surplus, China is far from down. Besides, since the start of trade tensions, Pekin has not made any major concessions to Washington. Logically, China started by looking for other trading partners. With limited success.
"Chinese exports to the European Union or the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are more dynamic, but that does not completely compensate for the shortfall against the United States. What makes adjustment difficult for China is that the trade war is occurring in a sluggish context both in China itself and in international markets, " said Sébastien Jean, director of the Center for Prospective Studies and International Information (Cepii). The country has just experienced another failure. Neither India nor, it seems, Japan wants to join the Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership promoted by Beijing to boost trade in Asia.
Two schools oppose
Beyond trade, experts are divided on the consequences of the decoupling of economies. A notion that appeared in the spring in some American think tanks and that was taken up by part of Donald Trump’s entourage. Two schools oppose, notes Li Wei, professor at the Peoples University, in Beijing, in an article published by the journal The Chinese Journal of International Politics (December 2019).
On the one hand, those who "Emphasize the role played by state intervention tend to see competition between powers as a zero-sum game". On the other hand, those who insist on the role played by the market believe that "China and the United States share the same common interests and can achieve a win-win outcome."
The former believe that, faced with the anti-Chinese policy of the United States, the Middle Kingdom must "Take the initiative to retaliate and strengthen its national investments in strategic industries and key technologies. (…) Movements like this could help China reduce dependence on the US market, US finance and technology. ”.
