"The procedure was dispatched, without drama"

The verdict in the Donald Trump impeachment trial is expected on Wednesday, February 5, less than three hundred days before the US presidential election. After only fifteen days of debate in a tense climate, senators will be called upon to rule on the two charges brought against the American president: abuse of power and hindering the smooth running of Congress.

In question, a telephone conversation between the President of the United States and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, on July 25. With the US Constitution imposing a two-thirds majority (67 votes) to find a president guilty, Donald Trump is likely to be acquitted in a predominantly Republican Senate.

As of Friday, the Democrats' last chance operation had already failed. US senators have refused by a slim majority to hear witnesses. US President John Bolton's ex-national security adviser John Bolton – author of a book that considerably weakens the defense of the White House tenant – will therefore not be heard in the Senate.

Historian Pap Ndiaye, a university professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies and a member of the Center for North American Studies, reviews this dismissal trial and its political repercussions.

What were the highlights of this impeachment trial? What should we remember?

The procedure was carefully blocked by Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, in close liaison with the president's lawyers, so as to avoid any unpleasant surprises, such as the a priori compromising testimony of John Bolton. Unlike the previous trial in 1998 (targeting Bill Clinton), which was held in bipartisan consultation, it was very different since it was piloted by and for the White House. With two exceptions (Moderate Republicans Mitt Romney and Susan Collins voted to hear new witnesses), the Republican senators therefore lined up like soldiers, while thinking no less for a certain number of them.

The cost-benefit of dissent with Trump was not favorable enough for the more lucid to defect. Consequently, the proceedings were dispatched without drama. Basically, there was no trial. The President has objectively enough to be satisfied, even if the stain of impeachment will remain on his presidential suit.

The verdict expected on Wednesday should be favorable to Donald Trump. What are the consequences for Democrats?

As soon as the acquittal is passed, Donald Trump will step up his counter-offensive to whitewash his supporters and denounce again and again the " witch hunt " of which he is the victim on the part of Democrats "Leftist" and "Sick". He will use tacticallyimpeachment for his re-election campaign.

For Democrats, who hoped an impartial trial could shatter the Republican majority in the Senate and expose the President's actions, is a stroke of the sword. In addition, senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar, held in trial, lost precious campaign days. At most, they can only hope that the democratic and independent electorate will thank them for having started the impeachment procedure, if only for a matter of principles.

Has the president never feared that "impeachment" would end up or weaken his re-election campaign? On the contrary, does he come out strengthened from this trial?

The trial was obviously not wanted by Donald Trump, who has been on the defensive for several months, and whose manners of mafia boss have been displayed in the public square. At the start of the procedure, in view of his extreme agitation, he seemed particularly worried. But Republican senators quickly reassured him.

Now, as a cunning and instinctive politician, he is seizing the moment to intensify his electoral campaign. The effect of the trial is therefore to further polarize the electorate: his supporters are convinced that he is a victim of the press and the Democrats; others that he has once again manipulated institutions to his advantage and that he is dangerous for democracy. Politically, it's a draw. But the consequence is already evident: the presidential campaign that is looming will be the most violent in the history of the country.