The thunderous announcement, Tuesday, November 17, of the new American Minister of Defense by interim, Christopher Miller, to accelerate the withdrawal of the soldiers deployed in Afghanistan, had its small success. He intends, by January 15, 2021, to reduce their number from 4,500 to 2,500. Presented as the respect of an electoral promise from Donald Trump, his critics saw in it a decision taken with the punch, putting in peril a country already on the brink of chaos.
In reality, if, in form, it sounds like abandonment in the open, in substance, it does not change much to the nature of the support of the United States or the inexorable advance of the Taliban towards power.
First of all, Washington is returning its soldiers by forced march since the signing, on February 29, of a bilateral peace pre-agreement with the Taliban alone, in Doha, Qatar. This text paved the way for their total withdrawal, at the 1er May 2021, under rather vague conditions which invite the insurgents to reduce violence and to open direct talks with the government in Kabul. Even if they are frozen, the inter-Afghan negotiations began on September 12, also in Doha. And if violence still strikes the Afghan security forces and the civilian populations, foreign and especially American troops are no longer targeted.
As early as the summer, the United States reduced their troops from 12,000 to 8,000 soldiers, down in recent weeks to just under 5,000. Moreover, according to our information, obtained in Kabul, General American Austin Scott Miller, head of NATO forces in Afghanistan, had already planned this downsizing by the end of January. These troop movements and the closing of military bases spread over the whole territory require an organization very upstream for security and logistical reasons.
German concern
In the United States, the reactions are not that hostile. President-elect Joe Biden, during the campaign and before, during his vice-presidency, has always been opposed to a prolonged stay of American soldiers in Afghanistan. He is unlikely to question the February deal with the Taliban, even though it opened wide the doors of power to them and weakened the Afghan authorities. “He should, on the other hand, place more emphasis on the conditions linked to this withdrawal, the decrease in violence and the progress of negotiations with Kabul, no blank check”, advances an American diplomat joined by The world.
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