Simulate the outcome of the US presidential election in the 15 strategic states

Posted today at 4:40 p.m.

The American election is an indirect election, where each state, in proportion to its population, assigns a number of large voters who will then appoint the president. Some states, such as California or those of New York and Washington, traditionally vote for Democratic candidates; others, like Tennessee, Idaho, or a number of southern states, prefer Republican candidates. In this complex political game, it is essential for the candidates to identify the strategic states capable of switching to one camp or another in order to campaign there: these are the pivot states, or swing states.

The Cook Political Report, a leading non-partisan publication, identified 15 states in which the election should take place. The result is significantly more predictable in the remaining 35, which should give 212 voters to Democrat Joe Biden, and 125 to outgoing President Donald Trump, or 337 voters out of the total of 538 to be nominated.

There remain 201 major voters of these 15 strategic states to be divided between the two contenders, knowing that the presidential candidates must obtain 270 to reach an absolute majority. Some of these states offer a large number, such as Texas (38) or Florida (29); these two states in particular being essential for Donald Trump to be reelected: if he loses in one of the two, his defeat is almost assured.

The fifteen states that could tip the election have been broken down into five categories below. For each state, you can decide which camp it could switch to: in order to help you in this task, we have included the votes of the presidential elections since that of 2000, as well as the margin in percentage points during the election of 2016 and the polls for 2020. ⤵

Absolute majority

Joe Biden

Donald Trump

How we worked


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