After the first results showing that Donald Trump resisted better than what had been expected by the voting intentions, the strongest complaints came, once is not custom, from some of these experts. “The profession of political pollster is over. It’s devastating for my industry ”, said Frank Luntz, a Republican opinion measurement specialist, interviewed by the site Axios.
On Wednesday, the media review of Washington post Margaret Sullivan was adamant. “We can be certain of certain things, she assured. We should never again put so much importance in public opinion polls and those who interpret them, as we have become accustomed to doing. The tool that is the poll seems to be irrevocably shattered, or at least our understanding of how seriously we must take it. “
“The supposedly imposing lead that Joe Biden carried for weeks did not last very long Tuesday night. It was a lead, remember, that many predicted could result in a landslide victory, help return the Senate to the Democrats, and bring them incredible victories in states. “red” like Ohio and Florida ”, she continued, ruthless, including with her own journal.
Anticipate the dynamics
The criticism was all the more virulent because what Margaret Sullivan considered a fiasco came four years after a bitter rout: the surprise election of Donald Trump. After having underestimated, in 2016, the Republican’s capacity to attract former Democrat blue-collar workers, polling institutes are considered, in 2020, to be short-sighted compared to other electoral segments, in particular Latinos , which explains Donald Trump’s good results in Florida and in the Rio Grande Valley, Texas. Siena College surveys for the New York Times and Marist College for the NBC News channel had however highlighted before this last election a dropout of Joe Biden compared to the candidate Hillary Clinton, four years earlier.
In 2016, few polls had anticipated the momentum that would bring Donald Trump to the White House. The fact that he was a newcomer to politics, despite his notoriety, and that the last few weeks of the campaign were marked by a succession of revelations pleaded for extenuating circumstances.
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