The battle for the Democratic presidential nomination was already uncertain in Iowa, the first state to decide, its outcome became even more unpredictable on Saturday evening 1st February. To the general amazement, arguing of problems encountered in its realization, the Des Moines Register has indeed given up publishing the latest edition of the master stallion of polls of voting intentions for this rural state: that carried out by the popess of the exercise, J. Ann Selzer, awaited with a certain fever by the campaign teams.
This cancellation was not offset by the publication of a CBS survey, the polls of which are, however, used by the Democratic Party to select the candidates during the televised debates. This survey puts the two veterans of the race, Bernie Sanders (78) and Joe Biden (77) at the top of the voting intentions for the first round of caucuses.
These results are to be taken with great care given the specific nature of the Iowa designation system, caucuses. The organization of two rounds and the possible redistribution of voters who would have turned on non “viable” candidates (having obtained less than 15% of the votes) in each of the electoral rallies organized on Monday can indeed upset the first order of arrival and the distribution of delegates at stake.
Among the candidates who threw their last forces in the Iowa campaign, Saturday 1st and Sunday, February 2, two are particularly dependent on a good result in Iowa: Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg.
The Massachusetts senator (70) is left behind in the voting intentions by her colleague from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, with whom she shares a program resolutely turned to the left. The CBS survey relegates it to fourth place with only 16% of voting intentions. Benjamin of the race (38), Pete Buttigieg also has to win or tie with Joe Biden in order to remain an alternative for centrist voters. He obtained 21% of the voting intentions in the CBS poll, which has a margin of error of 3 points.
"There may be two winners"
In Indianola, south of Des Moines, Elizabeth Warren boosted her energy on Sunday morning when she discovered that the small room at Simpson College in which she was to speak had been literally taken by storm. "This is good news and bad news", she said to the failures who had encountered closed doors for security reasons. Perched on a crate, she harangued them for ten minutes, also answering their questions, before continuing with the audience who was waiting inside the room. As has become the rule over the past few days, her dog Bailey is now the long selfie attendant who has long been her campaign signature, allowing the senator to chain public meetings.
