With 5,901 deaths and 85,380 cases confirmed Thursday April 30, Brazil has officially become one of the countries most affected by the coronavirus in the world. According to figures released by the Department of Health, the death toll would have doubled in just over a week and, if the grim predictions of Imperial College London are to be believed, could quickly reach 10,000 .
Since the start of the pandemic, many experts in Brazil have denounced a gigantic under-notification of the number of cases and victims of SARS-CoV-2. This is the case, for example, of the COVID-19 BRASIL group, bringing together researchers and epidemiologist from the best universities in the country. On Thursday, the latter estimated the number of cases between 1.1 and 1.6 million, 12 to 18 times more than the data from the Ministry of Health.
Two weeks earlier, on April 15, it was another collective, called Covid-19 BR Observatory, in partnership with the online magazine UOL, published an even more frightening figure: according to scientists, the number of deaths in Brazil would be 2 to 9 times higher than the government figures, or 3 800 to 15 600 dead at the time, which would represent from 11 800 to 53 000 today: a real slaughter, which (if confirmed) could make Brazil one of the main current foci of the coronavirus.
Record number of burials
Several elements intrigue specialists indeed, to trade by the record number of burials in cemeteries of the country, which hardly fits with the optimistic projections of the government. In Sao Paulo, the epicenter of the epidemic, 13,000 graves are to be dug in the coming weeks to accommodate future deaths, particularly related to the coronavirus. Another example: Fortaleza (Nordeste) plans to create 4,500 new graves.
Researchers are also looking at the record number of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) seen in hospitals across the country. By mid-April, according to the latest epidemiological bulletin from the Ministry of Health, Brazil had officially recorded 3,364 deaths directly linked to Covid-19 in 2020, but also 5,283 deaths from SARS " not specified " or " under investigation " : as many victims as researchers suspect are often linked to the new coronavirus.
Because theofficial figures only reflect part of the reality of the epidemic ", said Paulo Inacio Prado, professor at the University of Sao Paulo (USP) and member of the Covid-19 BR Observatory. Overwhelmed, laboratories struggle to analyze the thousands of serological and PCR tests. It sometimes takes fifteen to twenty days to authenticate the cause of death. " The data released daily by the government is therefore a photograph not of the present moment, but rather of the situation of a few days, even a few weeks ago … ", analyzes the researcher.
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