Analysis. Jair Bolsonaro repeats it to whoever wants to hear it: “I will not leave the Alvorada [la résidence présidentielle de Brasilia] than the 1er January 2027! “ Understand: after being re-elected in the next supreme ballot in 2022, for which this former soldier is obviously already a candidate and already in the campaign, ready for battle: cavalry captain erected on his horse, saber clear and bridle down.
Will it be so easy? Jair Bolsonaro certainly has a popularity rating at the highest since the start of his mandate (37% and 41% approval, according to the institutes). He is one of the very few leaders in this world to have succeeded (for now) in taking advantage of the Covid-19 crisis, preaching, since its inception, the primacy of the economy over health.
Yet appearances are deceptive. The municipal elections in November turned into a fiasco for Mr. Bolsonaro. Its candidates in Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, Fortaleza or Belo Horizonte have all or almost all been swept away, failing to be elected, despite the direct support of the president. The latter remains locked in the figure of the solitary troublemaker, incapable of “forming a system” around him.
Don’t offend the elites
While he will arrive at mid-term at 1er January and will begin his “second season” in power, the “Lone ranger” Bolsonaro is today at a crossroads. For him, the hour of choices has come. They are four in number, all risky and all crucial, each involving significant sacrifices, and potentially costing him his or her place or re-election.
First, there is a diplomatic choice. With the defeat of Donald Trump, Mr. Bolsonaro has lost his only important ally on the international stage. He is now cornered, his back to the wall, threatened with economic sanctions for his catastrophic management of the Amazon file. Will the Brazilian president decide to get closer to his Democratic counterpart – whom he finally congratulated on his victory on December 15 – or, on the contrary, to continue his flight forward? In the first case, he would lose the support of a good part of his supporters, in particular evangelicals and convinced Trumpists. In the second, he would alienate the economic and financial circles, terrified at the idea of a trade war with Washington, and who would not hesitate to let go of Mr. Bolsonaro and support his dismissal.
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