In Argentina, the probable return to power of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner

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Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, candidate for the vice presidency of Argentina, at a meeting in Mar Del Plata, on October 24th. Natacha Pisarenko / AP

They had come from all the beautiful areas of Buenos Aires to support their candidate, President Mauricio Macri, on October 19, on 9 de Julio Avenue, in Buenos Aires. But it was still the name of his predecessor, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (2007-2015), who was in every mouth. "Let her go to jail! "Thief, corrupt! " shouted the demonstrators, Argentinian flag in hand. "Cristina can not come back, it's not possible! " lamented Julia Camargo, a 48-year-old interior designer.

And yet. After three consecutive defeats in the parliamentary elections, thirteen indicted, seven requests for preventive detention – against which she is protected by her immunity as a senator – and even though she is standing in the elections of Sunday 27 October only as vice-president. President (on Alberto Fernandez's ticket), Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner ("CFK"), is about to return to power in the first round. The latest estimates most favorable to Mr. Macri give him 35% of the voting intentions, against 55% for "Fernandez".

Article reserved for our subscribers Read also In Argentina, voters ready to turn the page of the era Mauricio Macri

Why, while the vote Macri, in 2015, was mostly an anti-CFK vote, the victory of the latter looks so overwhelming? Three factors may explain this return, which no-one had expected, so much had it seemed to be withdrawn from politics in the last four years. The first and most obvious: the economic debacle, confirmed by the latest figures of inflation. It was 5.9% in September, or 37.7% for the year, with a forecast of 60% by December 31.

"Macri will have to be accountable"

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Argentina has the third highest inflation rate in the world, after Venezuela and Zimbabwe. All indicators are in red, despite a record loan of 57 billion dollars (51 billion euros) granted by the IMF in 2018. The peso tumbled: if it took 10 to buy 1 dollar in 2015, he need 65 today. The poverty rate is expected to reach 40% by the end of the year, compared to 30% in 2015. The debt, which accounted for 44% of GDP four years ago, rose to 81%. "What did this government do with the 57 billion IMF? is indignant Maria Seoane, writer and journalist close to Kirchnerism. He will have to report. "


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