Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial promises to be expeditious. It could, indeed, be conducted in the space of a single week depending on the agreement reached, as is the practice, the leader of the Democratic majority, Chuck Schumer (State of New York) and the official. from the Republican minority, Mitch McConnell (Kentucky).
It should begin Tuesday, February 9 with a preliminary debate of four hours on the constitutionality of the procedure. The three impeachment trials in American history (Andrew Johnson in 1868, Bill Clinton in 1999 and Donald Trump in 2020) had targeted presidents who were still in office, which is not the case today. As in a first indicative vote in January, a majority of elected officials should consider that the Senate is entitled to organize it.
Democratic prosecutors and lawyers for the former president should then each have sixteen hours to develop their arguments. Four eight-hour sessions are scheduled to be held Wednesday through Friday afternoon to give the Senate time to continue with confirmations from members of the new administration’s cabinet in the mornings.
This is a shorter duration than during the Republican’s first impeachment trial, in 2020, during which the two camps had each had twenty-four hours. The trial should then end Friday at the end of the day, at the request of one of the president’s lawyers, of Jewish faith, who observes the rest of the Shabbat. It is expected to resume Sunday with four hours devoted to questions from jurors, senators. The decisive vote on the article of impeachment voted on January 13 by the House of Representatives will take place later.
Its adoption would require the support of at least seventeen Republicans, which seems, for the moment, unlikely. A majority composed of Democratic votes and a few Republicans should emerge at the end of the trial, but it should prove insufficient. A qualified majority of 67 votes is, in fact, necessary for impeachments. In 2020, the then majority Republicans had rejected the two articles of impeachment voted by the House, by 53 votes to 47 and by 52 votes by 48. Only one Republican, Mitt Romney (Utah) had voted with the Democrats on an article .
Uncertainty remains about the possible summons of witnesses which could prolong the hearings. In 2020, the Democrats had strived to obtain from the Republican majority that of the former national security adviser to Donald Trump, John Bolton, who had been at the forefront of the “Ukrainian” affair (a blackmail to military aid to get Kiev to initiate investigations targeting the frontrunner of the Democratic nomination primaries, Joe Biden). John Bolton had announced his availability on the eve of the opening of the trial, after initially refusing to be heard by the House of Representatives. Prosecutors did send an invitation to Donald Trump to testify under oath on February 4, but the latter did not follow up.
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