DecryptionThe historically low level of black unemployment before the pandemic, or the growing sensitivity of this community, worried about its jobs, to the question of immigration, could notably explain this trend.
The trend, which began in 2012, was further accentuated during this presidential election. More and more black men are placing their trust in the Republican Party. And outgoing President Donald Trump, despite persistent rejection among black women, took advantage on Tuesday, November 3.
Early estimates suggest that 12% of African-American voters voted for him, down from just 8% four years ago. This figure is all the more significant since the participation rate of this electorate, which represents 12% of the population, should be much higher than in 2016.
There are several reasons for this phenomenon, apparently at odds with Mr. Trump’s white supremacist discourse, his condemnation of the anti-racist protests of recent months or the negative impact of the economic and health crisis on this population. During his campaign, the outgoing president was particularly attentive to praise his record to blacks: improvement of their economic situation, aid to historically black universities, proximity displayed with African-American rappers. Without fear of hyperbole, Mr. Trump even assured that, since Abraham Lincoln, architect of the abolition of slavery, no American president had worked so hard for the well-being of blacks.
Unemployment at its lowest before the pandemic
Before the dramatic rise in unemployment linked to the pandemic, the number of African-American job seekers had indeed reached an all-time low – while still being higher than for whites. In January, the unemployment rate fell to 6% in January for blacks, from 3.6% for white workers. Even if the trend had started under Barack Obama, some African-American voters, especially those who share the conservative views of the Republican Party, were therefore able to put the improvement in the situation to the credit of the outgoing president.
At the same time, these voters apparently do not attribute to him the heavy toll paid by blacks to Covid-19, both in terms of health – the risk of dying from the coronavirus is twice as high among blacks than among whites – and economic – since spring, they have recorded an unemployment rate on average 4 to 5 points higher than that of white workers -; in October, in the United States, 12% of blacks were again unemployed compared to 7% of whites
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