“A new indictment of Trump by the House of Representatives will probably mark the end of his political career”

On January 20, US President-elect Joe Biden will be officially invested. On the same date, his predecessor, Donald Trump, will leave the White House after four years of a chaotic mandate. Less than ten days before this deadline, many voices are raised to remove the Republican president from office.

Our correspondent in Washington, Gilles Paris, answered your questions.

Mathias: Concretely, why is this procedure being launched when it has almost no chance of succeeding, and it also risks penalizing the action of the future government vis-à-vis Congress?

The assault on the Capitol by supporters of Donald Trump constitutes an event whose gravity can hardly be avoided. First, there is the intrusion by force into the temple of democracy, and then the objective: to delay or prevent the certification of the results of the presidential election after the exhaustion of the appeals filed in the courts and multiple recounts in the main key states.

The impeachment process can be seen as purely symbolic one week before the end of Donald Trump’s tenure, but symbols matter. The situation requires Democrats to arbitrate between two priorities: to make Donald Trump accountable for his words and actions, and at the same time to allow Joe Biden to set up his team and take first steps, in particular to support the economy. One can hardly find a more complicated situation.

Jean Pleure Encore: Should the procedure be closed before the end of the mandate, that is to say on January 20, or can it continue and have an effect a posteriori (annulment of the president’s decisions since the events for example)?

The impeachment procedure will necessarily overflow after the end of Donald Trump’s mandate, Wednesday, January 20, at noon. The first phase, the indictment by the House of Representatives, can be completed as early as tomorrow, Wednesday, since the very short indictment, which is based exclusively on the words publicly spoken by Donald Trump on January 6 and on a recording of A conversation with Georgia state election officials on January 2 has already been drafted. But the Senate, whose agenda is still controlled by Republican Mitch McConnell, until January 21, does not intend to seize it immediately. It would have the merit of putting elected Republican officials face to face with their responsibilities, even if it is unlikely that a sufficient number of them will join the Democrats to obtain the qualified two-thirds majority necessary to condemn Donald Trump, which would be a first.

Moreover, the political sanction of a new indictment by the House of Representatives, for facts that are difficult to contest, will probably mark the end of his political career.

Gui: Is there any chance that Mike Pence will agree to summon the 25^e amendment? What would be his interest?

The meeting between Donald Trump and Mike Pence on Monday evening, after five days of unrest, showed that the vice-president did not intend to use the 25^e amendment of the Constitution. Mike Pence is playing the clock and awaiting the expiration of the current mandate, like the overwhelming majority of elected Republicans. The resignations of three secretaries and the number of interim staff, including for important defense and justice positions, also weaken the legitimacy of the cabinet, a majority of whose members must note that the president is no longer able to exercise his functions, so that his powers are transferred to the vice-president.

Tocqueville: What is the political interest of this approach for the Democrats? Doesn’t she risk adding fuel to the fire at a time when the country is more divided than ever?

Signals of radicalization did not die off by the evening of Jan.6, according to the FBI. The concerns relate to the swearing-in day, which will be accompanied by a significant deployment of security forces, but also the parliaments of states already under pressure in the spring when, at the instigation of Donald Trump, his followers loudly contested the measures taken to halt the spread of the coronavirus. To do nothing after the death of five people in Congress in the United States, in a disturbance to which Donald Trump contributed powerfully, can fuel a sense of impunity.

Pascal: In connection with a previous answer: how to explain that there are not more elected Republicans favorable to the dismissal? Under the current circumstances, is this not the perfect opportunity for them to prevent Donald Trump’s candidacy in 2024 and to permanently get rid of a personality toxic for the GOP? [Grand Old Party] ?

Two days after the assault on Congress, the leadership of the Republican Party met in Florida to learn from the electoral cycle that has just ended. Despite the loss of the White House and the Senate, after that of the House of Representatives in 2018, its leader, Ronna McDaniel, chosen by Donald Trump in 2017, was unanimously re-elected and no criticism was leveled against the outgoing president.

The fact that the Republican base, which counts in the primaries, remains faithful to the president constitutes a lock that no dissenter has been able to blow. For four years, the choice was simple: align with Donald Trump or quit politics, with very rare exceptions. This exceptional influence on a hussar bias in 2016 will not disappear instantly. It suffices to take the journey of an elected official like Lindsey Graham, senator from South Carolina, passed successively from warning against the danger constituted by Donald Trump to resignation, then to active and enthusiastic collaboration, and today to regret.

Matthieu: Isn’t the Democrats’ agenda to complete the GOP divide and thus ensure a few years of electoral success?

The Republican Party has been divided for decades between a moderate wing, embodied by figures of patricians such as George HW Bush or Mitt Romney, and an insurrectionary wing, that of Newt Gingrich and today of the Freedom Caucus (which brings together elected officials from the Tea Party converted to Trumpism). This internal tension is completely indifferent to the Democratic agenda.

It should also be noted that this divide did not prevent electoral success. The Tea Party war against the Republican caciques deemed too complacent with Democrat Barack Obama did not prevent the conquest of the House in 2010 or that of the Senate in 2014. The record number of votes obtained by Donald Trump in the presidential election November 3, 2020, even if he finally lost, risks weighing on the autopsy of the defeat; it will undoubtedly prevent a repudiation of Trumpism, and thus prolong the inconvenient cohabitation between these two factions.

Eoleo: What about a possible recourse to the 14th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States (impeachment for sedition), mentioned by some elected Democrats?

This option was suggested by constitutional experts and elected officials, but it was not adopted.

Make our democracy geat again: President Trump has always had a very stable popularity rating throughout his tenure. What about now?

The average of the latest polls compiled by the RealClearPolitics site shows a severe dropout since January 6 (56% disapproval and 41% opposing opinions). This stall should continue over the next few days due to the “percolation” of shocking images on the Capitol.

Donald Trump, who was the only president to never cross the 50% approval mark for his action during his four years in office, has, however, already had worse numbers. This was the case a year after his arrival at the White House (58% unfavorable opinions, 37% positive opinions), yet in the absence of open crisis.

2024? : In the event that Trump is impeached, could he stand for re-election in 2024?

It should be noted that a condemnation by the Senate is not automatically followed by a ban on holding public office or running for elected office. In 2019, at the start of the first impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump, experts, such as Edward Foley who teaches at Ohio State University, had considered a conviction that would not be accompanied by a ban. to represent himself, to spare the procedure of accusations of political maneuver.

The Senate votes on the legal consequences of a conviction once it has been established. Unlike this first step, a simple majority suffices, even if the Constitution is not very clear on this point.