CHRONIC. The status of world champion does not only have advantages, the greatest probability being that of losing it. It even happens that it is with as much noise as, lately, Germany or Spain. This status may give others fear and reassurance, but the holder is still awaited at the turn – in the hope of his fall.
What the French team will achieve at the Euro, in June-July, will determine both the way it looks at its recent past and its near future. After having qualified there without shining or failing (except in Turkey), then having undergone a drawing which sends it in a "group of death" in company of Germany and Portugal, to evaluate its chances n ' is not simple.
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Wear and renewal
Behind the prodigy Kylian Mbappé, in good shape, the state of the troops is much more mixed. The quintessential Antoine Griezmann is suffering in Barcelona. This will make him more resentful, but the injuries or the club situation of other executives worry, from Paul Pogba to Olivier Giroud through Hugo Lloris, Lucas Hernandez or Samuel Umtiti.
Wear also threatens certain pillars of the selection, such as Ngolo Kanté or Blaise Matuidi, while Benjamin Pavard lingers doubts about his level in a position where no competition has emerged. Where Kingsley Coman had a good year, Ousmane Dembélé, Thomas Lemar, Jonathan Ikoné or Tanguy Ndombele did not define a credible succession… We would almost have more faith in an X factor like Eduardo Camavinga.
Also the current cycle has not determined the degree of renewal between the two tournaments, which will only be by the list of 23 and the eleven type of Didier Deschamps, once in the thick of it. However, we know that it will not sacrifice everything to the experience of the globalist group.
The exercise of predictions is complicated by the leveling of values and chances. The selection football crisis particularly affects the "big" nations, lessened by the loss of motivation or the exhaustion of their stars, while the "small", often galvanized and well prepared, disturb the hierarchies.
Beat the odds
Every two years, the cards are widely shuffled, and the quality of national teams varies considerably from tournament to tournament. If Belgium or England have confirmed their progress, we are witnessing the return of grace from Italy and the Netherlands, absent in Russia in 2018.
It will already be necessary not to be part of the cadors who will remain on the grid from the group phase, and to pass the test at the same time as the probable critics on the "manner". The blooperers of 2006 and 2018 nevertheless demonstrate the inanity of the great flogging rituals of which this thankless phase is often the time.
The odds are playing against the French team. Its chances are the same as seven or eight title contenders, which gives an idea of their percentage. A final phase promises elimination for all but one. Its timing determines the record, but it will be one of failure – the unhappy finalist only escapes at the cost of the greatest disappointment.
The victory of 2018 is that of a team for which individuals have sacrificed themselves, which has united around a goal and found there a collective force likely to overthrow everything. These are conditions that no selection can do without if it wants to be sacred.
Glory or the stick
Didier Deschamps, born coach, must be recognized for his mastery of the difficult art of the final stages and of group management. On the field as on the bench, he met the victory, he knows how it comes. Ditto for the defeat, moreover (which comes from a raid on the left wing of a sufficient team and undermined by selfishness).
The fate of the Blues is more than ever linked to his, he who is going into his fourth final phase in the shoes of the coach, national record, and has been extended beyond by the French Football Federation.
He knows what he has to lose and to gain from it: an unprecedented glory, or the stick with which many expect him, annoyed by the denials he brought to their predictions of fiasco. Strange country where "supporting" the French team often means not being able to support it.
Deschamps also knows that a coach can only put his chances on the side of his team, and that everything else escapes him. With his "football percentage", he knows how to optimize them – without always escaping the sanction, even as absurd as an Eder shot in the Euro final finals four years ago.
