American health officials admitted Tuesday, June 30, not to control "Totally" the pandemic and fear an explosion in the number of cases in the United States. From 40,000 new cases detected per day, the pandemic could jump to 100,000 if "We don't reverse the trend", warned Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Infectious Diseases. Our correspondent in Washington, Gilles Paris, answered your questions in a chat dedicated to the health crisis in the United States and its political consequences.
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It’s far away: How is this growing “unpopularity” manifested? Surveys ? Pro-Trump characters who publicly change their minds?
In the United States, opinion polls do not measure popularity but approval of the President’s work. Since the beginning of April, the dropout has been severe. The gap between negative opinions, which have always been in the majority since Donald Trump's arrival in the White House, and positive opinions has decreased from – 2.5 points to – 15 points in the average of polls calculated by the site RealClearPolitics, which is confirmed by the site aggregator FiveThirtyEight.
Negative opinions clearly prevail for its management of the pandemic, as for its response to demonstrations against police violence, or the existence of a "Systemic racism". Mr. Trump likewise clings to Confederate symbols, presenting American history as a block, a " heritage " we do not call into question, while the Mississippi Republican stronghold if any, has just voted overwhelmingly for removal of the Confederate flag that was on his banner. Each time, Mr. Trump appears out of step.
Orialr: What is Trump's remaining electorate?
The heart of its electorate has been identified for a long time: it rests mainly on white men, over the age of 50 and with few qualifications. During his tenure, Trump has been abandoned by the female electorate, including now many of the unqualified women. This electorate supports Joe Biden more massively than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Mr. Trump is now in trouble among those over 65, most affected by the pandemic.
Tikent: I observe that the number of cases in the United States continues to increase, but the number of daily deaths still seems to decrease. How is this explained?
For the moment, the strong resumption of contaminations, from mid-June, has not effectively led to an increase in deaths, but it is already putting stress on hospital services in the most affected states, such as Arizona and Texas, which are no doubt better prepared than in March.
The governors of these states highlight the fact that the people concerned are younger, and therefore more resistant to the disease, but this progression of contamination is already causing the cancellation or postponement of measures to reopen public places and shops. It is therefore likely to have an impact on the economy again.
HH: Do you have more information concerning the "travel ban" and the possibility of traveling between France and the United States?
The double ban (by the United States and by Europe) is still in place. Europeans have just confirmed this. It is always possible for a French national who lives in the United States to return to his country, but except in rare cases (diplomatic visa), it is next to impossible to return to the United States.
L: The worsening health crisis she explained solely by a non-containment and decontainment too fast, or non-compliance barriers gestures and wearing a mask?
It is difficult to answer this question categorically. It can be noted that the states most affected today are states where the containment measures have been the least severe and the least long, often led by republican governors who have sometimes adopted very ideological positions in the face of the pandemic and the recommendations of the experts. But the contaminations are also progressing in states led by democrats, much more strict, like California. In this case, the non-respect of barrier gestures, the behavior of people could explain the increase in contamination.
Thib: Is it possible to postpone the November presidential election? What does the American Constitution have on this point?
The United States has already voted in wartime, a postponement is all the less likely since it would require on the one hand the adoption of a law by the Congress concerning the date of the vote, then probably of a modification of 20e amendment to the Constitution, which fixes the end of the president's term of office on January 20. Given the prevailing climate in both the House of Representatives and the Senate today, such votes seem unimaginable.
The debate is already raging on a greater use of postal voting, to limit the risks of contamination at polling stations. Trump opposes it by assuring, without being able to provide any evidence, that postal voting promotes fraud. If this practice increases, as a large majority of Americans want, it may be impossible to know who won the presidential election on polling night. The United States has a reputation for ineffectiveness in this area. It took a week to get the results of a simple Democratic primary held on June 23 for the seat of Kentucky senator challenged in November.
Julia: Who is responsible today for the response to the pandemic in the White House since Donald Trump has no subscribers? Even Mike Pence is the minimum service. Doctors Fauci and Blix are no longer too present either. Is it the ubiquitous Jared Kushner, or really no one controls anything anymore?
Vice President Mike Pence continues to chair the task force, which met on June 26 and 30. But after months of balancing Mr. Trump’s willpower and the warnings of experts, he has definitely sided with the president. He thus justified the organization of the Tulsa meeting on June 20, in defiance of the recommendations of his own administration, in the name of freedom of expression.
Zappa: The politicization of the response to the pandemic by Donald Trump, symbolized by his refusal to wear a mask publicly, has weakened the work of this task force. How to explain the choice of Joe Biden to give up meetings? Does this not reflect his lack of insurance?
We can respond by highlighting the fact that Mr. Biden, 77, has always taken care to respect the recommendations of health experts. In particular by observing strict confinement and by conspicuously wearing a mask during his rare trips outside. Certainly, during the Democratic primaries, the former vice president showed that he was not an outstanding speaker like Barack Obama, nor a tribune of the power of Mr. Trump. But it can only note that his "long quarantine" do not has served, on the contrary.
Likewise, the low attendance at Mr. Trump's meeting in Tulsa on June 20 has shown that his base, which nevertheless supports him with much more fervor, was also unwilling to go to meeting rooms. sport as if nothing had happened. The 2020 campaign already has nothing to do with its predecessors. It requires adapting to a new situation.
Paul: Can the American healthcare system be overwhelmed by the number of cases? Is it an Italian situation, where doctors had to decide who they were not going to provide care to?
It will be recalled that the start of the pandemic raised many concerns about the ability of the US health care system to respond to this challenge. In fact, even in the most difficult cases, such as New York or New Jersey, the system has held up rather well. He was not overwhelmed. Health services are probably better prepared in July than in March. And the federal government paid for the illness, although not everything was perfect, of course.
