The majority Democratic House of Representatives in the United States gave its approval on Thursday, December 19, to the new free trade agreement binding the United States, Mexico and Canada (AEUMC), offering a victory to Republican President Donald Trump the day after the historic vote on his removal.
The agreement, which has received broad support from both political sides (385 votes in favor, 41 votes against), has yet to be approved by the Senate, dominated by Republicans, to enter into force. No date has yet been set for the final vote.
The head of the Republican majority in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, had just warned last week that this vote should " very probably " wait for the end of the dismissal trial of Donald Trump, which is scheduled to open in early January and which is of indefinite duration.
House agreement "With such support from both parties is an important step and shows how successfully President Trump is changing US trade policy"said US trade representative Robert Lighthizer, who negotiated the terms of the deal.
"Almost every aspect of our life – the food on our table, the clothes we wear, the fuel in our cars – depend on free trade with Mexico and Canada ", the centrist Republican Will Hurd, who represents a sprawling constituency on the border between Texas and Mexico, had said earlier in the public debate.
American car industry relieved
President of the American Chamber of Commerce, Thomas Donohue, and President of theAmerican Automotive Policy Council (American Auto Policy Council) Matt Blunt urged to vote in the Senate without delay. This trade agreement will "Strengthen the US auto industry and the supply chain of the sector"also reacted Blunt, whose sector had been weakened by the previous agreement.
The USMCA is a modernized version of the North American Free Trade Treaty (Alena), long criticized by the White House host. Signed by former US President Bill Clinton and entered into force in 1994, the Alena has contributed significantly to economic growth and higher living standards for the people of the three member countries. But it has also led to many outsourcing, particularly in the automotive sector, to Mexico, where labor is cheaper.
Donald Trump, who called the Alena a "Worst trade deal in history" of the United States because of the job destruction it caused, had imposed its renegotiation in August 2017. After a marathon of negotiations, the AEUMC had been signed, in its initial version, by the three countries at the end of November 2018.
But that was without counting on the questioning of the text by the American democrats, who demanded the renegotiation of certain chapters, in particular that relating to the labor reform in Mexico. The amended text was finally signed on December 10 in Mexico City and ratified by the Mexican Senate late last week. Canada has promised to ratify the agreement once it has been adopted by the United States.
Trade with Canada and Mexico supports 12 million American jobs, and 49 American states count Mexico or Canada among their three main merchandise export markets, according to data from the American Chamber of Commerce.
Canada and Mexico account for 40% of the growth in total US merchandise exports. And trade with the two countries reached nearly $ 1.4 trillion in 2018.
A model for future trade agreements
At the announcement of the signing last week, the Democrats had estimated that the EUMC would "Boost the US economy, support American workers, protect the environment and improve access to affordable medicines". In unison with the Republicans, they also ensure that this treaty will serve as a model for future trade agreements.
An independent American body had estimated in April that the impact would be "Positive" but "Modest". In its report, the American International Trade Commission (USITC) thus reported a gain in GDP of $ 68.2 billion, or 0.35%, and an increase in jobs of 176,000 (+ 0, 12%). "The USMCA is expected to create between 176,000 and 589,000 new American jobs and significantly increase economic growth", said Robert Lighthizer on Thursday.
In Mexico, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador welcomed "The very good news" on Twitter, saying the deal would benefit the people of the three countries. Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, for his part, welcomed the end of a period of uncertainty. "We are moving forward. Good news ", he tweeted.
