Chronic. For months, we thought the folded case: Donald Trump would be beaten in the presidential election of 2020. The tenant of the White House had won the election only by a hair in the states said of the Belt of the rust (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin). A slight flip of the disillusioned white worker voters, who had given him their decisive vote in November 2016, should be enough. We saw this in the mid-term elections in 2018, with the undeniable victory of the Democrats in these regions. The 2020 presidential election could only fall like ripe fruit.
However, doubt arises. Under Trump already pierces a George W. Bush, reelected in 2004 against John Kerry in spite of the disaster of the war in Iraq already perceptible for who wanted to open his eyes. Except that some of the Americans do not want to open their eyes, at least not the same eyes as those of European observers.
First, come back in force on "It's the economy, stupid! " which allowed the victory of Bill Clinton against Bush father in 1992 because of recession. Nothing like Trump. The economy is booming, unemployment is lowest, Wall Street is highest. Of course, all of this will come to an end, with an abysmal budget deficit as industrial investment declines. Nevertheless, the predicted recession in 2019 did not take place, the trade wars have hit the minds and the rest of the world more than the American economy, while low wages are increasing a little, enough not to trigger a choir against the growth of inequalities.
Trump has put himself in battle: trade armistice with China, Mexico and Canada (which will relieve the farmers Midwest), interest rates adjusted by the Fed for the campaign. Let’s add that impeachment doesn’t move a vote and that the Iranian crisis ends in a victory for Trump, at least in the eyes of his supporters.
The democratic puzzle
Opposite is the Democratic puzzle. The latter have the advantage of tackling the subjects of concern to America: health for all, the exorbitant cost of studies, arms control and global warming. The first option is that of the left, which proposes a progressive revolution. This is not impossible, the United States having already experienced such bursts: under Théodore Roosevelt (1901-1909) against the monopolies, precursors of GAFA, at the beginning of the XXe century; under Franklin Roosevelt (1933-1945) from 1933 with the New Deal; under Lyndon Johnson (1963-1969) for the fight for civil rights.