A victory for the White House will not be enough for Joe Biden. To be able to apply an ambitious program, it will indeed have to have the support of a Congress divided between a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. Donald Trump showed his confidence during the last presidential debate, on October 22, by affirming that the Republican Party will be able to take back the majority within the first, on the evening of November 3. An ambitious goal given an electoral map unfavorable to the Grand Old Party.
Monday November 2, Cook Political Report, one of the reference sites of American politics, has also modified its forecasts once again in a direction favorable to the Democrats. These changes reflected the sentiment generally shared by election experts who expect the Democratic Party to retain its majority in the Lower House on November 3. According to Cook Political Report, Democrats could even increase it from five to fifteen seats.
“Renewing the American Dream”
With 232 seats against 198 in the Republican Party, the Democrats have a significant margin. It is reinforced by the fact that only nine of their elected officials do not stand for re-election in 2020 against 26 Republicans. The outgoing status is considered an asset in an assembly which is fully subject to re-election every two years. The Republicans must win about twenty constituencies, given the seats currently vacant, in order to cause an alternation. While the majority is set at 218 seats, the Cook Political Report so far grants 229 to Democrats, including 193 “Solidly democratic” (against 153 Republicans), 18 “Probably democrats” (against 12 republicans) and 18 “Rather democrats” (against 14 Republicans). Twenty-six seats are considered undecided, including 9 Democrats and 17 Republicans.
Four Republican seats where the incumbent does not stand for election are already promised to the Democratic Party, Texas, North Carolina and Georgia. These changes, if they are confirmed, would be part of the movement initiated during the mid-term elections which saw peri-urban areas turning to the Democrats, often through the candidacy of women. The Republican Party had lost 41 constituencies on this occasion.
The leader of the Republican minority of the House, Kevin McCarthy (California), presented, in mid-September, a roadmap to regain the mallet, the symbol of the speaker (president) of the lower house, held by Nancy Pelosi (California). The main themes of this republican agenda are ambitious: “Restore our way of life”, “Rebuild the biggest economy in history” and “Renewing the American Dream”. They do not, however, have the breath of the “Contract with America” promoted by Newt Gingrich in 1994, which made it possible to conquer the House on a very ideological line.
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