Whether they are pragmatists towards Tehran or, on the contrary, virulent adversaries of Iran, the Gulf countries have displayed, since the assassination of General Ghassem Soleimani, killed in an American raid in Baghdad, on January 3, similar position: the refusal of a military escalation in the region.
The feeling that, for the time being, the United States and Iran, after Iran's reprisals against bases sheltering American soldiers in Iraq, do not wish to outbid brings a fragile respite. Media have hailed the disappearance of the powerful Iranian general, architect of Tehran's regional influence. But the political leaders, in Riyadh, Manama or Abu Dhabi, were careful not to rejoice publicly. "The Gulf countries are very concerned about the consequences and how Iran will respond. It is not finished ", explains Yasmine Farouk, analyst at the Carnegie Foundation.
"Dialogue is the only solution to this crisis"said Qatar’s emir Tamim Ben Hamad Al Thani on Sunday (January 12th), who met with Iranian President Hassan Rohani and the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran. Washington's ally, Doha maintains privileged ties with Iran.
Safe pressure
Although Saudi Arabia, which continues to boycott Qatar, has supported Washington's “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran, it too is seeking to calm things down while condemning the Iranian response by Iraq the kingdom called "All parties to the withholding", Thursday January 9.
But if the escalation seems to have been avoided for the time being, tensions remain high between Washington and Tehran. The pro-Iranian side has said it is determined to drive the United States out of the region, and out of Iraq first. He recalled his ability to mobilize, during ceremonies of homage to Ghassem Soleimani, erected as a hero: these were notably organized in Lebanon by Hezbollah, in Yemen by the Houthi rebels, or even in Gaza. Rockets targeted an Iraqi air base sheltering American soldiers on Sunday.
One of the questions also concerns Tehran’s pursuit of a strategy of security pressure on Washington’s regional allies. More than 30,000 American soldiers are also stationed in the Gulf countries, in particular on the important naval base hosted by Bahrain. "These countries know that they can be the first victim of tensions, either because the American presence is targeted, or that they are themselves targeted: oil installations, embassies", recalls Laurence Louër, associate professor at SciencesPo. The assassination of Ghassem Soleimani, however, restored "A form of trust (from the Gulf allies) to the United States, considers analyst Abdulkhaleq Abdulla. Killing Soleimani is a huge decision, which many have deemed very courageous. "
