The election campaign to renew the British House of Commons on Thursday December 12 promised to be full of surprises and pitfalls, especially for outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a colorful and often blundering political leader, in search of an absolute majority. But weariness has settled in, the Conservatives and Labor alike quickly repeating the same arguments. Public opinion seems all the more difficult to mobilize as the country is in its third general election in four years. However, the ballot is crucial and the choice of the British particularly thorny.
If Mr. Johnson and his side win more than 326 seats (the majority in Westminster), Brexit will most certainly take place on January 31, 2020 and the remainers, who have been resisting since mid-2016, will have definitively lost. If Mr. Johnson loses his bet, the country embarks on additional months of uncertainty.
No one seriously believes in a Jeremy Corbyn victory, but many contemplate the hypothesis of a new hung parliament – a Parliament without a majority -, with a minority, conservative or Labor government. And perhaps a second referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU).
Brexiters should not hesitate too much to vote on December 12. On the other hand, remainers will face an far more difficult dilemma. What will those who reject the program and Mr. Corbyn's personality decide: will they vote for the Liberal Democrats (LibDem), at the risk of dispersing the "Remain" vote and allowing the victory of a tory? Would they prefer to vote tactically for Mr Corbyn, in the hope of avoiding Brexit, but with the prospect of achieving a hung parliament paralyzing?
The scuttling of the Brexit Party
In the past three weeks, polls have given the Conservatives (at 43% of the vote) a 10-point lead over Labor. Enough to secure a comfortable majority. But, published Wednesday December 11 in the Times, a YouGov survey based on a much larger than usual sample (100,000 people) predicted only a majority of 28 seats for Mr. Johnson.
The first-past-the-post system – the candidate with the most votes in his or her constituency wins – makes national projections complicated. In 2017, hardly anyone had anticipated the failure of Theresa May, who lost her majority by ten seats.
