tribune The Conservatives' broad victory in the December 12 general election has greatly reduced the likelihood of a Brexit revocation. It does not, however, completely eliminate the risk of no deal Brexit. Admittedly, in October, Boris Johnson negotiated with the European Union for a withdrawal agreement which fixes a transitional period until the end of 2020, extendable until the end of 2022.
This agreement crystallizes the rights of British citizens in Europe and Europeans in the United Kingdom and provides for a formidably complex customs solution supposed to avoid the re-establishment of a "hard" border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
However, it is still necessary to avoid a no deal, that this agreement comes into force before January 31, 2020. However, for this, several stages remain to pass. On the one hand, the British Parliament must approve the 115 or so pages of the law implementing the withdrawal agreement. On the other hand, and we sometimes forget, the European Parliament must approve the agreement.
However, even if it was closely associated with the negotiations, it cannot be excluded that certain MEPs are reluctant to approve an agreement which makes Northern Ireland a quasi-special economic zone which risks encouraging certain companies to relocate their activities there. .
The role of the Court of Justice of the European Union
If the procedure is not completed by January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom will then have to request a further extension which will have to be accepted unanimously by the other 27 heads of state or government, with all the uncertainty that raises. President Macron, in particular, has repeatedly expressed his weariness with Brexit.
In addition, the legal risk has been completely overlooked. However, it cannot be excluded that the Court of Justice of the European Union will have to check the compatibility of the agreement with European treaties. Admittedly, before the entry into force of the agreement, it can only be referred to by a Member State or an institution of the Union.
However, for the moment, no intention to seize the Court has been expressed. However, after the entry into force of the agreement, the operation of normal legal channels could, for example, allow individuals dissatisfied with the agreement to challenge its legality before the Court of Justice.
In the absence of precedents, it is difficult to assess the risk of illegality of the agreement. It will be sufficient to observe that a certain number of provisions of the agreement could be regarded as going beyond the simple transitional arrangements which seems to allow article 50 of the treaty on European Union, legal basis of the procedure.
